Lowered Expectations: Shot Stopping and Model Design by Harrison Crow

Has it really already been a week? 

Well, if you’re at all familiar with this article you know what we’re about shots, shots, shots. It’s almost as if we starred in a LMFAO  video with Lil John 10 years ago and never quite got over it (we didn’t). The closer to the goal the shot is, the better. I know that sounds obvious but this is a very scientific process and is incredibly complicated

Thank god, we have this blog where we can unravel the deep seatedmysteries of expected goals and explain how we distill these goal scoring opportunities down into cold raw values which we’ve learned can now entirely explain the game of soccer.

Let’s get started.

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Expected Narratives: It's The Hot Taking-est Time of the Year by Ian L.

It’s that time of year, isn’t it? The time of year where we decide which MLS players to award with our annual plaudits. It’s a little earlier than the rest of the nation does it, but I have a very good reason for that. The reason is that I figure if I can get these out earlier I can help influence the votes towards the candidates I believe are most deserving. Some of these will be easy. Some will be hard. I think this may be the most difficult best XI I’ve ever tried to pick. A lot of you are going to disagree with my choices. I’ve thought long and hard about it and decided that if this is an issue, then you’re welcome to write your own article. But seriously, a lot of guys this year that would get usually get these distinctions are going to get left out. That totally sucks for them but is a great sign of the improved quality of the league. Let’s go ahead and start with a spicy one.

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xPG is Back, Baby!: Putting Possession Metrics to the (Correlation) Test by Jamon Moore

Last year, Cheuk Hei Ho, Eliot McKinley, and I collaborated on a soccer metric called Expected Possession Goals (xPG). xPG is a possession-based non-shot expected goals metric designed to measure the value of possessions whether they result in a shot or not. You can read more about it in these initial articles here on American Soccer Analysis. Later last season we extended xPG into multiple variants, including measuring possession risk and mistakes, but so far the initial xPG, now called Chance xPG, has been the most interesting. We even created a Twitter account called @GameFlowxPG which measures match momentum. It has been pretty popular (I’m a little salty since it usually has more followers than I do).

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Lowered Expectations: The International "Break" by Harrison Crow

I know that everyone is pretty wrapped up with the International Break and how awesome it has been for those in North America between Canada winning twice, Mexico looking like a world power, and the US ... well, two out of three isn’t bad right?

 But don’t forget we had Major League Soccer last weekend! So let’s talk about that and the happiness associated five missed golden opportunities, as we do every week. Let’s get it!

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Lowered Expectations: Katai is Fired Up by Harrison Crow

You may or may not remember that I like to write about how shots from good locations don’t become goals. This was, once upon a time, a weekly feature here. Drew has begged me to come and start writing again, so here we are back again.

Those of you who may not be familiar with this column of mine, please, allow me to introduce to you the idea of expected goals. It’s the probability a given shot attempt would be scored, taking into account specific criteria captured at the time of the shot.

In this column we like to talk about what the expected goals model sees, and also what it doesn’t, when arriving with the xG number. The theme of this column is to take the five highest probability shots from open play (i.e. excluding free kicks and set pieces) of the previous week that didn’t end with the ball in the back of the net.

It also often turns into me decrying terrible crosses into the box that the model likes but are in actuality terrible chances that are awful and stupid and should be outlawed. Okay, well... let’s get started!

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With Or Without You (WOWY): a plus-minus alternative for soccer by Cheuk Hei Ho

Plus-minus measures the impact of a player on their team’s performance. Originally invented by hockey general managers, every player on the ice is awarded a plus when their team scores a goal while every opponent player on ice gets a minus. The higher the plus-minus rating, higher the net positive of goals scored for a player’s team. In terms of plus-minus, the beste player has the highest plus-minus score, and the worst player has the lowest. Plus-minus has also been modified for use in basketball, first by 82games, and now more famously by ESPN

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Expected Narratives: Deadline Day Edition by Ian L.

I’m writing this as Dave Kasper is likely just rolling around his office covered in fax paper shouting orders to his underlings and swinging for the rafters with wild abandon. Yes. The fact that MLS is about to be used as leverage for a much more lucrative move to China for Mesut Ozil shows just how far we’ve come as a league in the last few years. What about Mario Balotelli? DC United is interested and so the dream continues to live, teasing us mercilessly. If there is one thing that Washington DC needs in 2020 it is Mario Balotelli storming around the capital doing crazy Mario Balotelli stuff like, I don’t know, pushing a tourist into the reflecting pool and then handing them $1800 cash. It boggles the mind really. Ola Kamara is already on his way to DC United and someone should probably tell him ahead of time if he’s going to be replaced once again by one of the world’s most infamous soccer personalities. But all that is for later. Right now let’s just close our eyes and imagine DC United setting Wayne Rooney free only to be rewarded with Ola Kamara, Mario Balotelli, and Mesut Ozil. Ha. Nah…


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Using Expected Threat to Find the Best Shot-Creators in MLS by Arjun Balaraman

Growing up as a Manchester United fan, I have been fortunate enough to have seen some brilliant attacking players, but amidst a bevy of exciting talent one man stood out as a different kind of goalscorer – a comparatively unheralded striker from Mexico: Javier Hernandez – more commonly known as Chicharito.  

The fascinating part about Hernandez’s game was how he scored those goals. Chicharito is the ultimate goal poacher, a real throwback to the earlier decades when strikers were meant to sit in the box and score goals – nothing else. While Ronaldo et al., often created their goal scoring opportunities with their ability to move with the ball, Chicharito’s skill was moving without the ball. With his ability to, somehow, always be in the right place at the right time, Hernandez has made a career of tap-ins and intuitive finishes. In fact, all 52 of his goals in the Premier League have come from inside the box.

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Records Are Fun - Let's Acknowledge These Accomplishments Before Vela Erases Them by Jacob Beckett

Records are fun. Recognizable numbers like 56 (game hitting streak - baseball), 100 (points in a game - basketball), 2,000 (rushing yards - football), 61 70 73 (home runs - baseball) give everyone something to root for and an easy way to track the greatest games or seasons of all time.

For a long time, MLS had 27. In the inaugural 1996 season, Roy Lassiter scored 27 goals, and no one was able to match it for a decade and a half. But then a man named Wondo hit the figure in 2012, Bradley Wright-Phillips did it again in 2014, and a seemingly very angry young man named Josef Martinez obliterated the mark with 31 goals last season.

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How the Quakes Dominated the Cali Classico... Again by Anay Patel

In addition to being one of the most storied rivalries in MLS history, the California Classico has an extra flair to it in 2019. New San Jose manager Matias Almeyda played for and managed Argentinian giant River Plate, and new LA Galaxy manager Guillermo Barros Schelotto played for and managed their hated rival Boca Juniors. In addition to that, Almeyda managed Banfield for a period, the rival of Lanús, where Schelotto managed his first side. So on paper the coaching matchup should be about equal. In reality, it hasn’t been.

Following San Jose’s 3-0 win in the first edition of the 2019 California Clasico, LA Galaxy manager Guillermo Barros Schelotto and captain Zlatan Ibrahimovic dismissed the win, claiming that the scoreline was not reflective of the close nature of the match. After all, the Galaxy were missing key players Jonathan dos Santos and Uriel Antuna, who were away on Gold Cup duty. Earthquakes homegrown player Tommy Thompson was dismissive of the comments, remarking that “there’s always a scoreboard, after the game and it said 3-0.” For the rematch only two weeks later, the table was set for a very interesting tactical matchup between two new managers trying to implement their philosophy into their clubs. In actuality, Almeda’s side came out on top again, this time by a score of 3-1.

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