Updated Game-by-game Expected Goals

Updated Game-by-game Expected Goals

Starting today, if you go to our xG by Game page (also listed at the bottom of this post), you'll notice that there are now two expected goals totals for each team. That's because we have multiple xG models, and they give different results. Crazy, we know. One is called the team expected goals model, and the other the player expected goals model. There are only two simple differences between these models, but they are significant. 

  1. Penalty kicks are worth less in the team model. 
  2. Sequential shots get their value diminished in the team model.
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Every One of our 2018 MLS Season Previews

Every One of our 2018 MLS Season Previews

Whew! After more than two weeks of team previews, we're finally done. If you missed any or just want to get primed for every team's season, here's the full list:

Eastern Conference
Atlanta United by Tiotal Football
Chicago Fire by Kevin Minkus
Columbus Crew by Jason Poon
D.C. United by DCU_Exile
Montreal Impact by Aaron Nielsen
New England Revolution by Ian L.
New York City FC by Jared Young
New York Red Bulls by Benjamin Bellman
Orlando City SC by DCU_Exile
Philadelphia Union by Jared Young
Toronto FC by Aaron Nielsen

Western Conference
Colorado Rapids by Benjamin Bellman
FC Dallas by Jason Poon
Houston Dynamo by Drew Olsen
L.A. Galaxy by Harrison Crow
Los Angeles FC by Kevin Shank
Minnesota United by Ian L.
Portland Timbers by Drew Olsen
Real Salt Lake by Jason Poon
San Jose Earthquakes by Kevin Minkus
Seattle Sounders by Harrison Crow
Sporting Kansas City by Kevin Shank
Vancouver Whitecaps by Aaron Nielsen

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Portland Timbers 2018 Season Preview

Portland Timbers 2018 Season Preview

On the back of  humanitarian and league MVP Diego Valeri, the 2017 Timbers won the Western Conference and thought they had a chance at a second MLS Cup. Unfortunately, injuries struck at the worst time and they bowed out of the playoffs with barely a whimper. With a new coach and some shrewd offseason signings, Portland will try again to end their season with an addition to their trophy case.

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Houston Dynamo 2018 Season Preview

Houston Dynamo 2018 Season Preview

Last season was a solid if unspectacular one for the Dynamo, as they exceeded expectations in the regular season and made a surprising run to the Conference Finals. With more important subtractions than additions in 2018, they'll hope to tread water in an improved West.

2017 in review

Last year was a surprisingly smooth one for the Dynamo. As evidenced by the mostly slow and steady incline of the season progression chart above, Houston was the Little Engine That Could. They made BBVA Compass Stadium a stronghold, eked out results on the road, and found their way to the Western Conference Finals.

At home, the Dynamo were offensive juggernauts. Buoyed by the best goal celebration in MLS, they averaged 1.8 xGF per game and only 1.04 xGA on their way to 12 wins and only one loss at BBVA. The 40 points they earned were second only to Toronto and their 41 goals and +25 GD at home were both best in the Western Conference. When they turned it on, they seemed unstoppable.

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Every One of our 2017 MLS Season Previews

By Drew Olsen (@drewjolsen)

We've spent the last two weeks previewing every MLS team, and finally the season starts tonight! If you missed any or just want to get primed for every team's season, here's the full list:

Eastern Conference

Atlanta United FC by Jared Young
Chicago Fire by Mike Fotopoulos
Columbus Crew by Kevin Minkus
D.C. United by DCU Exile
Montreal Impact by Aaron Nielson
New England Revolution by Coleman Larned
New York City FC by Benjamin Bellman and Drew Olsen
New York Red Bulls by Coleman Larned
Orlando City SC by DCU Exile
Philadelphia Union by Jared Young
Toronto FC by Aaron Nielson

Western Conference
Colorado Rapids by Benjamin Bellman
FC Dallas by Phil Luetchford
Houston Dynamo by Phil Luetchford
L.A. Galaxy by Phil Luetchford
Minnesota United by Phil Luetchford and Drew Olsen
Portland Timbers by Drew Olsen
Real Salt Lake by Jason Poon
San Jose Earthquakes by Kevin Minkus
Seattle Sounders by Benjamin Harrison
Sporting Kansas City by Jason Poon
Vancouver Whitecaps by Aaron Nielson

Portland Timbers 2017 Season Preview

Portland Timbers 2017 Season Preview

The Timbers are one of the biggest clubs (trust us) in MLS, and they have an owner, coach, and fan base with consistently high expectations. After winning the cup in 2015, very few changes were made to the roster and the league got better around them. They missed the playoffs last season and never found the spark that took them to the championship. Changes had to come, and some big additions (and subtractions) were made to improve the team. While it's too early to say if those moves were the right ones, one thing is clear: the Timbers want another MLS Cup.

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2016 ASA Season Previews: Every Dang One of Them!

In preparation for First Kick we've been writing two team previews per day for the last two weeks. Going in reverse order of 2015 finish, ASA and our (very) small band of writers have published 20 articles, covering each team's 2015 season, their offseason changes, and their prospects for 2016. If you haven't read them all yet, AND WE KNOW YOU HAVEN'T, then you can catch up here.

Eastern Conference

Chicago Fire by Tom Worville
Philadelphia Union by Coleman Larned
New York City FC by Drew Olsen
Orlando City SC by Kevin Minkus
Toronto FC by Jason Poon
New England Revolution by Sean Steffen
DC United by Drew Olsen
Montreal Impact by Benjamin Harrison
New York Red Bulls by Harrison Crow
Columbus Crew by Jared Young

Western Conference

Colorado Rapids by Drew Olsen
Real Salt Lake by Coleman Larned
Houston Dynamo by Harrison Crow
San Jose Earthquakes by Sean Steffen
Sporting Kansas City by Kevin Minkus
Los Angeles Galaxy by Sean Steffen
Seattle Sounders by Harrison Crow
Vancouver Whitecaps by Benjamin Harrison
FC Dallas by Jason Poon
Portland Timbers by Drew Olsen

2016 ASA PREVIEW: PORTLAND TIMBERS

Coming off of an epic end-of-season run that ended in the Timbers hoisting the first trophy in the club’s 40 year history, expectations are high among the Rose City faithful. While significant changes aren’t usually expected for a championship winning side, Portland has seen quite a few. If everything falls into place for the new arrivals, the team can stay healthy, and Caleb Porter’s patented single-pivot midfield continues to unlock defenses, this club could join Houston, Los Angeles and DC United as the only teams to ever repeat as champs. If all the pieces don’t click, we could see a repeat of the 2014 season when the club’s lofty preseason expectations were met with a finish outside of the playoffs.

2015 in review

The best team during the long MLS season doesn’t usually win the playoffs, and last year was no exception. If you consider the full length of the season, the Red Bulls and FC Dallas were unquestionably the best teams in their respective conferences. And while the Supporter’s Shield is nothing to shake an energy drink at, it’s certainly not the most coveted prize.

So if the Timbers weren’t the best team in MLS last year; they were the best team in MLS when it mattered. With three games remaining in their season and daunting road games in Salt Lake City and L.A. ahead of them, our own playoff odds gave them a less than 50% chance to make the playoffs. After a great run of results in the spring, it looked again like their status was “same as it ever was” and the team was doomed to just miss the playoffs for a second season in a row.

More on the epic run to the cup after the jump.

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2016 ASA PREVIEW: DC UNITED

United have the most storied history of teams in MLS, but a lot of change is incoming. 2015 was a solid season for the black and red, but changes need to be made if the team is to be considered a contender again for MLS Cup. My guess is that that the season ahead will be a bit of a struggle as the club looks ahead to a new stadium and a new identity in the coming years.

2015 in review

Last season was an interesting one for United. As evidenced by the season progress in the graphic above, the club hovered around the top of the league standings for the first three quarters of the season, largely on the back of their league-leading 11 victories by one goal. They also had the second fewest wins by 2+ goals, ahead only of cellar-dwellers Chicago and Colorado. Unfortunately for United fans, Ben Olsen’s conservative strategy fell apart at the end of the summer, as DC finished the season with six of their 13 losses coming in the final nine games, culminating in a 0-5 rout in Columbus on the last day of the season. They were ultimately eliminated by the Red Bulls in in the conference semifinals for the second year in a row, losing both legs 0-1.

There are multiple ways to interpret the season; is Olsen the Jose Mourinho of MLS or just afraid of offense? On paper, it seems like he’s working with less than many other playoff teams. Fabian Espindola is the only designated player on the team, and he made just 15 starts last season due to injury and suspension. Chris Rolfe led the team with 10 goals, but no other player had more than five. Though a midseason trade for Alvaro Saborio gave some hope that more offense was coming, it never did. It may not have been pretty (and it certainly wasn’t), but Ben Olsen has shown he can consistently get more out of his team than most MLS coaches. It’s a task he’ll try to replicate in 2016.

More after the jump.

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2016 ASA PREVIEW: NEW YORK CITY FC

Only one MLS expansion team (Seattle in 2009) since the turn of the millennium has made the playoffs in their first season. Given the tumult that surrounded NYCFC’s existence prior to ever kicking a ball, it always seemed unlikely they would be the second. But expectations for Jason Kreis’ side were high, he didn't live up to them, and so he was dismissed. There have been numerous and significant changes going into the 2016 season, and there can be no question that a significant improvement is expected for the upcoming season. How realistic those expectations are is yet to be seen.

2015 in review

In my 2015 preview for NYCFC I began with a series of questions. The answers to those questions at the end of the season were supposed to determine whether the season was a success or not. As I said at the time, “success in 2015 is unlikely to be measured in team performance, but rather a series of more existential factors.” Let’s see if the answers to those questions give us insight into what happened to the club last season.

1. “Has the city of New York accepted the team?”

This seems to be a fairly resounding “yes.” The average attendance of 29,016 people per game was good for 3rd in the league, despite playing in a baseball stadium that is less than ideal for the beautiful game. Advantage NYCFC.

2. “Has the organization created a more stable front office?”

Conversely, this seems to be a fairly resounding “no.” Kreis went to Manchester to learn from from his superiors, was poised to bring his MLS Cup winning experience to the job, and had over a year to prepare his team and roster. Then he was given unrealistic expectations and was handed a team consisting mostly of cast-offs, misfits, geriatrics, and David Villa. While he certainly wasn’t blameless, he also was far from the only reason why his team didn’t work.

A big part of that is Kreis apparently didn’t have as much control as we (and maybe he) thought he did. We won’t re-hash the Lampard fiasco here, but it became apparent early that he was but the marionette puppet and the Abu Dhabian overlords were actually pulling the strings at NYCFC.* (To add insult to injury, Kreis is now forced to stare longingly on as an assistant to a coach he is far better than.)

More questions after the jump.

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