2016 ASA PREVIEW: COLORADO RAPIDS

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Looking back at the Colorado Rapids 2015 season is a task that should only be done only under duress. A second year under coach Pablo Mastroeni and the addition of Kevin Doyle and Marcelo Sarvas had supporters cautiously optimistic about the season. Instead, the 37 points they earned in the regular season was worst in the Western Conference, and tied them with NYCFC and Philadelphia as 2nd worst in MLS last season.

The new additions underwhelmed, but blame for the failed season doesn’t fall squarely on them. The team never really threatened to be a contender in the Western Conference, and the front office continues to confound. But that doesn’t mean the organization isn’t changing things. Though rumors they were looking to sign USMNT players Alejandro Bedoya and Tim Howard and fell through, there has still been plenty of change. As of this writing, nine new players have been added in 2016, while 15 players have been sold or let go.  A newer, younger, philosophical style is being implemented. Whether it will be successful is still hard to determine.

See our breakdown after the jump:

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Model Projections: Crew Favored to Win MLS Cup 2015

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As you probably know, after each playoff game we've been projecting the remainder of the MLS Playoffs 50,000 times using our expected goals model. Yesterday we did it for the last time in 2015. The odds for both Portland and Columbus are listed to the right.

There are plenty of limitations to our model - it doesn't account for injuries, it doesn't care about formations (Nagbe in the single pivot, anyone?), and we still can't predict weather patterns - but on the whole it has been pretty accurate.

Given those limitations, to some 65% odds for Columbus may seem high, and they are certainly pretty favorable odds in a game pundits are calling a fairly even matchup. Consider that the Crew had the 4th highest expected goals against (xGA) this season,  which was worse than Chicago, Orlando, and Philadelphia, and you may be even more confused.

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Conference Final Home Teams Have A First-leg Up

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As you probably know, we've been projecting the MLS playoffs after each round of games. Using a bivariate Poisson model, we simulate goal scoring based off our expected goals model. Given that goals are an essential ingredient for emulating soccer's two-legged system, this has proven quite important, and the conference finals are no different.  

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MLS Playoff Projections

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Now that're through the first round and leg-one of the quarterfinals of the MLS Playoffs, we just want to remind you about our projections for each subsequent round. The odds you see of teams advancing through the semis take into account the leg one results. The "Change" column tells how much the most recent actual result (i.e. the leg-one results) has altered the model's projection for each club's likelihood of winning MLS Cup 2015.

Throughout the playoffs, you can find our model's predictions under the "Projections" tab in the upper right. We're updating them the day after each round of games.

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MLS Week 34 and Playoffs Seeding Generator

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With both conferences so tight, there are some pretty wacky playoff scenarios floating around. Check out our game projections if you want to see what our model is predicting. In an effort to make it easy for everyone to figure out what each result means and to avoid having to do a lot of math while the games are progressing on Sunday, I came up with this spreadsheet. Just plug in the score to the games below, and the final conference standings will appear, down to the first few tiebreakers. The playoff matchups will fill in below.

Hopefully you will find this handy while you're in the middle of watching multiple games at once on Sunday, and throughout the playoffs.

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Time For A Change

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Warning: This is an atypical piece from us. It's purely an opinion piece. There are no numbers or graphs below. If you're looking for unbiased and hot-take free writing, skip this one. We'll be back to our normal analytics stuff shortly.

Inspired by this piece over at LA Galaxy Confidential from our own Sean Steffen, and surprised at how easy it was to find his email address online, I set out to write a short email to the president of the United States Soccer Federation, Sunil Gulati, on why it's time for Jurgen Klinsmann to be fired as head coach.

It soon turned into something of an existential personal release and awakening on the state of the USMNT, and more for me than for him. At the encouragement of my fellow ASA writers, I'm posting it here. Feel free to send me your own thoughts (or tell me how wrong I am) on twitter.

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Introducing Playoff Seeding Projections

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As you've probably seen under the Projections tab in the upper right, for the last couple months we've been keeping the odds for each MLS team's chances at making the playoffs and winning the Supporters' Shield. 

Our playoff probabilities come from a combination of 1) where teams are now in the tables, 2) what their remaining schedule is, and 3) how good our model thinks they are. It's the same model that produces the Power Rankings, but the key difference is that here we take each team's current standing and remaining schedule into account.

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Gold Cup Team Preview: Cuba

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On paper, Cuba is the worst team in this tournament. With both their FIFA and ELO rankings in the triple-digits, simply not losing any players to defection might be enough to satisfy many in Cuba. Mixed recent results - they drew fellow group C members Trinidad & Tobago 0-0 in last year’s Caribbean Cup, but also tied Curacao (177th in ELO) twice last month – make predictions difficult, but not being embarrassed in every game would probably be a successful tournament.

Getting information on this team is difficult because they’re the only roster that is made up entirely of players that play in their domestic league, and getting information into and out of Cuba isn’t exactly easy. Their greatest asset may come from how little their opponents know about them.

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Gold Cup Team Preview: Guatemala

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Guatemala is one of the teams being talked about the least, but don’t count them out. A favorable group draw and an experienced roster make this team a contender to become this year’s tournament surprise. Still, with only one win in their last eight games, questions about their coach and an overreliance on players well into their 30s may prove tough obstacles to overcome.

How did they get here?
They qualified for the Gold Cup by finishing 2nd in the 2014 Copa Centroamericana, losing  1-2 to Costa Rica in the final.

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Gold Cup Team Preview: Honduras

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Honduras is the team nobody wants to play. With the USA and Panama the clear favorites to finish 1st and 2nd in Group A, Honduras has little pressure on their backs. This was a difficult group draw for them, but their path to the knockout stages isn't unimaginable. Featuring a cohesive and experienced pool of talent, this is a team that is capable of surprising some experts. Still, the big names left off the final roster have raised some questions about if they’re taking this tournament seriously.

How did they get here?
Honduras was the last team to qualify for the Gold Cup after beating French Guiana over two legs. In a battle between the 5th place teams in the Caribbean Football Union and Central American Football Union respectively, Anderlect player and DC United veteran Andy Najar was the hero when his brace helped “La H” come back from a 3-1 defeat in the 1st leg to win 4-3 on aggregate.

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