2023 Season Previews: New York Red Bulls, Columbus Crew, Colorado Rapids

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2023 Season Previews: New York Red Bulls, Columbus Crew, Colorado Rapids

Since the more than two million dollar signing of coach Gerhard Struber in October 2020, RB Global has continued to spend on the squad after a long fallow period. This off-season is no different with the club record signing of striker Dante Vanzeir. Struber has overseen a dramatic overhaul of the squad, and RBNY improved dramatically in his first season, posting a 10.37 xGD, which was good for fifth in the league (compared to fifth worst in 2020), while the team underperformed overall, gaining only 13th most points with 48 (the 2020 team averaged 1.38 ppg which was close to the 2021 team ppg of 1.41).

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Where Goals Come From: How The Best Teams in MLS Pass

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Where Goals Come From: How The Best Teams in MLS Pass

This is the fifth article in a series of articles and videos in the Where Goals Come From project from Jamon Moore and Carl Carpenter.

By now, readers of the Where Goals Come From project will be very in tune with the benefits of progressive passing in soccer, both from a data and tactical perspective. Within these last few weeks you’ve probably noticed a trend about the scope of progressive passing and its effectiveness throughout all levels of men’s and women’s football, furthering its importance within the game as a means of scoring goals (you know...where goals come from).

However, as American Soccer Analysis, we would be remiss to not put one specific league under the microscope and take a deeper look: in this case, Major League Soccer. In doing so, I’m going to look at the various tactical schemes the “defining” teams of the past three seasons in MLS have used to find success. These teams are:

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2020 Season Preview: Columbus Crew SC

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2020 Season Preview: Columbus Crew SC

Unlike last season where Columbus returned 96% of team minutes played, this offseason has seen more turnover for the Crew than has been seen in years but has also resulted in impressive depth throughout the squad. After a disappointing and injury-filled 2019 season, Caleb Porter will be looking to bring his team to the playoffs for the first time under his watch.

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Offseason Outlook: Columbus Crew

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Offseason Outlook: Columbus Crew

The Columbus Crew had a disappointing season in 2019, finishing 3rd to last in the East. Unlike the stability of last season, the roster is showing more turnover than the club has seen in many years. While most positions have starters already in place, the Crew lack depth in most positional groups.

Here’s how the Crew’s roster stands with a projected depth chart in the Crew’s traditional 4-2-3-1 formation…

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Trapp Game: How Caleb Porter has changed the Crew

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Trapp Game: How Caleb Porter has changed the Crew

The year 2019 brought a new Crew. Anthony Precourt got his wish and slithered away to Austin, while head coach and sporting director Gregg Berhalter began his rehabilitation of the US national team, leaving behind five years of solid results in Columbus. Replacing them was a new ownership group and front office led by the Haslam and Edwards families. Toronto FC’s Tim Bezbatchenko came in to lead the Crew’s soccer operations and former MLS Champion Caleb Porter took over as the head coach. With the smallest offseason turnover of a perennial playoff team, expectations were that Porter would provide a steady hand for continued success this season. However, that hasn’t happened and Columbus remains third to last in the Eastern Conference with only a game left in the season. Did the transition fail to succeed because Porter couldn’t implement his vision, or because that vision just didn’t work?

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Columbus Crew 2019 Season Preview

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Columbus Crew 2019 Season Preview

After probably the toughest season in Crew history, everything’s coming up Massive for the Crew. An absentee, out-of-town investor/operator has been replaced by a committed local group led by the Crew’s long-time team physician Dr. Pete Edwards. A new stadium in the heart of downtown is in the works, Tim Bezbatchenko has returned home to Columbus as President, and Caleb Porter returned to Ohio to win an MLS Cup for Columbus. With the Crew returning 96% of minutes played in 2018, look for an evolution rather than a revolution on the field from Caleb Porter’s men.

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Machine Learning the Crew

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Machine Learning the Crew

Machine learning is so hot right now and if Skynet is going to destroy all humans, it should at least know a little bit about Major League Soccer’s Columbus Crew. To wit, I created a machine learning model to classify which position in a Gregg Berhalter 4-2-3-1 formation a player most likely played in during a single game.

I chose the Crew for a couple reasons. First, they are my favorite team. Second, they had consistent coaching for a long period of time with a defined style of play. The latter is very important, as the model has to be trained well in order for the results to make sense. Since the Crew almost always played a 4-2-3-1 that relied on ball possession to disorganize the defense and create goal opportunities (get used to that phrase USMNT fans) it was a perfect test of whether this kind of thing could be done.

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You Down with t-SNE?

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You Down with t-SNE?

We all know that some teams play a certain style, Red Bulls play with high pressure and direct attacks, Vancouver crosses the ball, Columbus possesses the ball from the back. Although we know these things intuitively, we can use analytical methods to group teams as well. Doing so seems unnecessary when we have all these descriptors like press-resistance, overload, trequartista-shadow striker hybrid, gegenthrowins, mobile regista, releasing, Colorado Countercounter gambits...etc (we actually don’t know what some of these terms mean and may have made some up, but the real ones are popular so just google them yourself). Those terms are nice, but no qualitative descriptor can tell us how the styles of New York City and Columbus differ from each other. We need to measure, compare, and model two teams’ playing styles and efficiencies. If we are able to do these things we may be in a position to answer what style really is.

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