MLS according to g+: The Overperforming, the Underperforming, and the Ugly Part 3

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MLS according to g+: The Overperforming, the Underperforming, and the Ugly Part 3

We have reached the conclusion of the 2020 MLS season, and it happens to coincide with the conclusion of the long, LONG 2020 US election. And the two things share a lot in common - first and foremost among them being the all-important question of “who won?” and “who lost?”

But when the contest is at its end, or a season is nearly over, hand-wringing and analysis is all that’s left - the ‘woulda-shoulda-couldas’ of the world that keep a veritable army of pundits employed in our country. The most important thing for these folks to look at is underperformance: how did we do this thing, expecting it would have a certain result, and not get the desired result? For the election, a few things obviously underperformed; namely, pollsters, who had predicted a robust blue wave that did not manifest; and Democrats, who faced a let down across the country, from the results of the presidential election in Florida to the Maine senate race between Sara Gideon and Susan Collins.

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MLS 2020 According to g+: The Overperforming, the Underperforming, and the Ugly, Part 2

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On part 2, we begin to get into the numbers you’ve been raptly anticipating - the stuff that you can take to Vegas and possibly blow your next Coronavirus stimulus check on. Vegas likes numbers, but I’m not sure they’ve gone down the internet rabbit hole far enough to discover this website yet.

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MLS 2020 According to g+: The Overperforming, the Underperforming, and the Ugly, Part 1

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Ever since the first coach had the first microphone stuck in his or her face, or the first pundit expounded upon their local sports team, folks have opined that “we were better than the results” or “we should have won that game.” And for a long time, you would pretty much have to take their word on that.

But the new g+ metric, and the even-newer aggregate measure of g+ that ASA’s Mattias Kullowatz (twitter: @MattyAnselmo) and John Muller (@johnspacemuller) rolled out last week has given us a tool that lets us actually say with real certainty that a team is better, worse, or exactly what the win-loss results show. In other words, g+ is a giant neon sign that blinks “Regression Ahead” or “We wuz robbed, again.”

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What the numbers tell us so far about 2020 Orlando City SC

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What the numbers tell us so far about 2020 Orlando City SC

There’s so much to like when it comes to Orlando City SC this season. The upbeat, exciting soccer that Oscar Pareja has his boys playing; the fluid and exhilarating wing work of Chris Mueller; Nani doing Nani things. Add to it some strong d-mids and fullbacks with afterburner speed, and it has all started to come together for the Lions.

Orlando had home field advantage for the MLS is Back tournament. But also, did they? They were the only team that didn’t really have to travel, but they left their homes and had to check into a hotel and stay there for the duration of the tournament. Whatever they were doing worked, though, as they rode a 2-0-1 record in their group into the knockout stages. From there, they beat Montreal 1-0, got past LAFC on penalties after a 90th minute equalizer from Joao Moutinho, and had their way with Minnesota United before ultimately falling to Portland Timbers in the final.

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What the Numbers Tell Us About the Rapids in 2020

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What the Numbers Tell Us About the Rapids in 2020

New numbers are supposed to reveal new understandings of teams and players - to find a better way to quantify the things we see on the field into useful, descriptive data that truly reflects a player’s genuine contribution to a team’s performance.

You’re at this website probably because you distrust the traditional numbers that a television broadcast might use to describe a player’s performance. ‘Assists’ are valuable, but less so if a player is a tremendous passer with lousy finishers on the end of his passes. ‘Pass completion percentage’ isn’t particularly valuable if a player makes lots of safe lateral and backwards passes.

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2020 Season Preview: Orlando City SC

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2020 Season Preview: Orlando City SC

So I wrote the preview for Colorado, and I’m like ‘they’re solid, and they made upgrades - mid-table or better’. I wrote the preview for LAFC, and I’m like ‘they were the best team in MLS in 2019 - they’ll stay at or near the top of the league for sure.’

Orlando City? I don’t even begin to know, man. And anyone who tells you otherwise is full of cow manure.

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2020 Season Preview: Los Angeles FC

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2020 Season Preview: Los Angeles FC

Bob Bradley came in with something to prove in 2018, the franchise’s first year. In interview after interview, he reminded folks that he skippered Chicago Fire to the double in 1998, the club’s first year of existence, winning both MLS Cup and the US Open Cup. Bob had similar ambitions for LAFC, and his ownership built him a team - with Carlos Vela and Walker Zimmerman and Eduard Atuesta and Laurent Ciman - that got pretty close in both 2018 and 2019.

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2020 Season Preview: Colorado Rapids

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2020 Season Preview: Colorado Rapids

Early Spring on the Colorado Front Range can deliver very nearly anything. On Tuesday you can suffer through a punishing snowstorm accompanied by sub-zero polar vortex cold. By Thursday, modest temperatures, blue skies, and a blistering wind will range the open grasslands that abut Commerce City, the home of the Colorado Rapids. And by Saturday, it can be shorts-and-tshirt weather. The weirdness and unpredictability makes living in Denver perpetually entertaining, at least if you have the wardrobe to endure it. I can’t say I recommend becoming a gardener here, though.

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Offseason Outlook: Orlando City

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Offseason Outlook: Orlando City

Orlando City haven’t really ever been “good”, per se. They were “entertaining” and “competitive” in their first two years with Kaka. And then, from 2017 to 2019, they were varying shades of bad.

But they’ve never been in existential crisis until now.

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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles FC

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It’s hard to feel, well, anything really about how LAFC finished in 2019. You don’t exactly feel sorry for the MLS juggernaut that came to conquer all and lay claim to ‘greatest MLS team ever’, but didn’t. Carlos Vela and Bob Bradley seemed so cocksure and full of swagger that their inevitable comeuppance at the hands of the Seattle Sounders was almost satisfying for MLS neutrals. For LAFC fans, it would certainly be disappointing if they hadn’t be treated to so many other wonderful delights in the 2019 season. Ricky Bobby / Ron Burgundy / More Cowbell United earned Supporters Shield on the back of an outrageous record-setting 72 point season, and they did it with a record-shattering Goal Differential of +48. The previous mark of +41 had been set by the LA Galaxy way back in 1998. Their star player won the MVP award while breaking the goal scoring record, as Vela found the net an outrageous 34 times. And all that, in just their second year of existence. So if 3252 members are looking for tea and sympathy amongst other MLS fans, they ain’t gonna get it.

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