Toronto FC: Postseason Preview

2019 REVIEW

Toronto FC’s 2019 season started off strong. They picked up 16 points in their first 8 games, including a 4-0 win against NYCFC where their marquee signing, Alejandro Pozuelo, put up 2 goals and 1 assist. Things went south after that - they got just 1 win in their next 11 games. From July onward, though, TFC were pretty good. They lost only twice, and closed out the season on a 10-game unbeaten streak.

TEAM STATISTICS

Much of the criticism and skepticism of TFC as a playoff contender comes from some notion of their lack of consistency. The narrative goes like this: They have a lot of talent, and an inability to defend in transition and those two facts mean they’re as likely to concede 3 goals as score 3. Both are undoubtedly true. 538’s SPI ranking has Toronto as the sixth-best offense in MLS. On defense though, possessions that end in shots against TFC take just the fifth-fewest passes in the league. They’re vulnerable on the counter.

Take those two points together, however, and they’re on the whole still a pretty good side. Here’s Toronto’s 7-game rolling xGD:

Toronto were underwater for that stretch in the middle of the year, but for the most part they look pretty good, and TFC ended the regular season playing their best soccer of 2019. And a handful of the games in that rough middle patch took place over the Gold Cup, when Toronto were without Jozy Altidore, Michael Bradley, and Jonathan Osorio, some of their most important players.

That dry spell does point to, supposedly, Toronto’s biggest potential obstacle to a playoff run. Jozy is the team’s best attacking option. He leads the team with 0.64 xG + xA per 90. He’s not just getting on the end of chances, either - he creates them as well. His xA alone is .20, which is behind only Pozuelo among TFC players with significant minutes. If Jozy is hurt and can’t play, Toronto loses that production. 

I’m actually not so sure Toronto takes a huge step back in Altidore’s absence, however. His likely replacement, ASA analytics darling Patrick Mullins, is on 0.43 xG + xA per 90. That’s not that bad! They’re only losing one-fifth of a goal of production per 90 when Jozy sits. Toronto actually put up more xG total per game - 1.45 - in the games where Jozy played 45 minutes or fewer than in games where he played more than a half - 1.35. Now, game state and the quality of the opposition probably do factor in here. Mullins started games against Cincinnati, New England, Columbus, and Houston (though DC United really aren’t much better than those sides). But on the whole, Toronto probably have enough talent elsewhere to weather playing without Altidore.

HOW THEY PLAY

With Altidore in the lineup, TFC generally look something like this:

Bradley sits in a single pivot, with Delgado and Osorio chasing the ball higher up field in front of him. One of the fullbacks (most recently Richie Laryea) gets high into the attack. And Altidore and Pozuelo frequently look to link up. 

Note how close Altidore and Pozuelo are on that map. Even when Jozy Altidore isn’t assisting or taking shots, he’s pretty important to how the offense runs. A pretty common pattern in possession for TFC is to get Altidore on the ball in the midfield:

Where he can then combine with Pozuelo off his shoulder in the half-spaces:

In the passing network above, Tsubasa Endoh is on an island on the left. By formation he’s technically a winger, but he really operates more like a second forward. Because Toronto’s midfield, with Altidore as a target outlet, are so strong in possession, they can afford to let Endoh drift high and wide without many responsibilities in defense or in possession.

Patrick Mullins, though, doesn’t have the passing ability to play like Jozy. Here’s where he gets on the ball:

He drops into the midfield a bit in transition, but most of his touches are coming much closer to goal, like a traditional forward. Toronto have to play differently as a result. The left winger has to track back, and TFC can’t get an easy numbers advantage in the middle. So far, by the metrics I provided above, though, it looks like those adjustments have been working fine.

THE FIRST ROUND MATCHUP

Those specific adjustments are probably okay against DC United. DC, especially since moving Russell Canouse to right back, and choosing to totally concede possession, have been worse and less aggressive at winning the ball in the midfield. That means TFC don’t need to drop Altidore off the backline in order to get more numbers on the ball in the middle - they should be fine possessing it regardless.

It’s interesting - if Altidore sits, the way TFC tends to play in his absence is well-suited to matching up against DC. How they usually play with Altidore, though, makes it a pretty poor match-up. DC mostly look to attack on the flanks in transition, and this is exactly where Toronto’s defense is vulnerable. Because Endoh and Laryea get so high, and Omar Gonzalez and Chris Mavinga are not great defending in space, Toronto are much, much more likely to concede shots on possessions that begin with long balls out to the wings. It wouldn’t be a terrible idea to sit Altidore for this game both for his health and for the tactical matchup.

An additional interesting thing TFC do tactically is switch the point of attack frequently. Often, in possession, TFC will work the ball to one side of the field, and then rotate it back to Michael Bradley to hit a switch to the other side. Generally, the goal is to find a winger in space or one on one with the fullback. Russell Canouse, though only newly a right back, has actually been pretty good in those moments. He’s winning 70% of challenges from that spot, versus a 62% league average. It will be interesting to see if Canouse can maintain his positional discipline and not get caught drifting to the middle when the ball goes wide to the opposite side.

WHY TORONTO FC WON’T MAKE THE MLS CUP FINAL

The adjustments I called out above, that are necessary in Jozy’s absence, are probably fine, and maybe even preferred, against DC United. They definitely are not, however, against NYCFC, Philly, or Atlanta, all of whom make it a priority to get pressure to the ball and control the middle. Toronto will need Jozy’s passing ability and hold-up play for them to have a chance at beating the top teams in the East. And, even if Altidore is in the lineup, Toronto have a very clear achilles’ heel: they are brutal defending in transition out wide.

WHY TORONTO FC WILL MAKE THE MLS CUP FINAL

Between Jozy, Pozuelo, Michael Bradley, and Omar Gonzalez, TFC’s top-line talent is superb. They just drew with LAFC 1-1 on the road! While they may no longer have a guy like Giovinco or Vasquez, this is still a team loaded with offensive star power. The playoffs aren’t run of the mill matches. Individual moments of brilliance and individual mistakes can and will make a difference in these kinds of games. Having been to two of the last three finals, Toronto have talented personnel with plenty of postseason experience to draw from. Greg Vanney knows what has to be done to be successful. Toronto FC won’t be overawed by the occasion and that will serve them well.