Los Angeles Galaxy 2019 Season Preview
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Point-above-replacement values are explained here. Non-penalty expected goals + expected assists are explained here, and you can see all players’ xG+xA in our interactive expected goals tables. Touch percent is the percentage of total team touches by that player while he is on the field, which can be found in our interactive expected passing tables.
By Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)
Undisputedly, last year was a disappointment... wait, I used that line already. Oh, well... this is pretty near the end of our “we probably should have made the playoffs but something went wrong” team previews fashion line. The Galaxy may have finally found the right management pieces but are they ready to lead the organization back to glory this season?
2018 in review
The thing is, I’m not sure they deserved to get to the playoffs last year. Zlatan did just about as much as you could have reasonably asked, but the backline was atrocious, and it’s not as if no one saw it coming. Here is what I wrote just last February:
“I’m still not sold that this team is good enough defensively. Even if the Galaxy are good or even great on the attacking side (which still has its own set of question marks), this could be another bottom of the table season if the defense isn't fixed.
Last year was a terrible year for the defensive side of this club, and the team only replaced two of the four backline. It’s not hard to see this defensive side folding in upon itself once more as one of the worst in the league.”
I’m not here to boast or claim to be Nostradamus, I'll just remind you all that it wasn’t a total surprise the Galaxy were terrible on defense last year. I will admit, even I was surprised by how bad Jørgen Skjelvik turned out to be and how easily teams found it to carve their way through the Galaxy’s back-line, especially after Ashley Cole hit the Roger Murtaugh wall. It was akin to any 10-year-old boy and a piece of wood in just about any Mark Twain story.
But while it’s simple enough to lay the entire season at the feet of the defense, the other side of the coin is that the rest of the team isn’t exactly blameless. The central midfield was disorganized, Jonathan Dos Santos specifically wasn’t sufficient, and Ola Kamara on the wings was a train wreck defensively.
That being said, the Galaxy attack was one of the most dangerous and overwhelming in the league. Not only did they finish second in goals scored but they were also tied for the most multi-goal games in MLS last year. This was conducted by their three foremost attackers.
Zlatan, the Lion demigod, along with unsurprisingly being one of the foremost attacking presence in the league, showed his innate ability to imprint himself on games and change games by sheer force of will. We’ve seen it afar off in Europe for over a decade, but here it was on full display as he nearly single-handedly turned the tide and carried the Galaxy to the playoffs.
Kamara, despite his impropriety on the defensive side out wide, showed how pure of an attacking figure he can be, regardless of the system or creative infrastructure. He just found ways to get to the ball and go at goal, which lead to him having success in spite of being moved around the field and pushed into unusual roles.
In the same vein, Romain Alessandrini continued to be one of the league's most underrated wingers, providing excellent creative attacking play. It really is curious for Alessandrini to be the most creative and technical player on one of the most storied franchises in the league, yet somehow be as underrated as he is.
But despite having three of the most prominent attacking figures in the league and being as dominant as they were at times, the Galaxy were unable to find their way to overcome the internal bleeding and perform the needed triage to see them through to the playoffs.
The 2018 Galaxy was a strange two-faced character that both wasn’t good enough and was among the very best. I don’t know if there was another team in MLS history this strange and awesome and bad. It’s was an unusual ride and I suspect 2019, rather than being a different story, will rather just be a follow-up chapter.
Offseason Roster Changes
Departures
Headed into the season, the Galaxy have parted ways with seven individuals. First and foremost, Michael Ciani, who played 1,600 somewhat frustrating minutes. His involvement in the defense was mostly related to negative occurrences rather than positive ones. The Galaxy’s center backs seemed to consist of big strong aerial figures but lacked true athleticism either on the break or in tight places which lead to their beating much too frequently.
Likewise, Ashley Cole had some good moments last year. Unfortunately, they mostly, if not unanimously, occurred in the first half of games. He wilted dramatically in the final 40 minutes of matches, and his drop off was rough to watch as the season unfolded.
It’s hardly surprising as he turned 38 this past December, but it’s jarring after the impact he’s had over three seasons. It was unfair to expect a lot of quality from him with nary a second thought to depth or late game subs. Dave Romney ended up being that de-facto piece but hardly provided comparable or even serviceable depth.
I do hope people look back on Cole’s time in MLS fondly. It was surprisingly good and is a fitting epilogue to his storied career in Europe.
The last departure of real note is long time club figure Baggio Husidic. Husidic has been a pretty reliable piece over parts of the previous five seasons for the Galaxy, but has shown a noticeable decline and spent the majority of time on the bench last year. At 31 he’s no longer a guy who should be making starts up the spine for teams but could still be a valuable depth piece for another club.
Arrivals
In a lot of ways, the Galaxy feel like they’ve not changed a thing going into 2019, but also seem like they’re a much-improved organization. It starts with the fact that they actually improved their upper tier organizational management by hiring Dennis te Kloese as General Manager.
Even before the tweet by Parchman, it had been feeling like a different team in the preseason, even to an outsider. However, while Parchman and his contacts credit te Kloese, my perspective looking back into the organization seems to reflect new head coach Guillermo Barros Schelotto.
It feels kind of poetic in a way that after the late Sigi Schmid finished his career there, that Schelotto, who maintained a good relationship with Schmid, would be his successor. But Schelotto being hired to coach this team is less about his time under Schmid and more about what he’s done in Argentina with Lanús (winning a Copa Sudamericana in 2013) and then Boca Juniors and reaching a Copa Libertadores final. His accomplishments as a young coach and pedigree as a player make him a fantastic fit for the LA Galaxy.
Aside from the front office upgrades, the team has added a few pieces for the field too. Diego Polenta had been connected with Schelotto during his time with Boca Juniors, and his addition brings a potentially massive jump in quality to a back line that desperately needs it.
Additionally, the depth of young Mexican U20 delight Uriel Antuna will provide some needed attacking depth on the wings. Prodigal son Juninho will give the club some needed quality of central midfield depth that can help both defensively and on the attack by connecting passes.
Roster Outlook
Goalkeeper
I can’t believe that Schelotto would start Matt Lampson over David Bingham. It has not looked that way from the early reports, but I also can’t believe they’d go with Bingham again without much in the form of competition.
I swing back and forth as to the quality of Bingham and whether or not he’s an MLS caliber starting keeper. There is a part of me that thinks he’s an above average athletic guy who can really help minimize fast break opportunities. There is another part of me that says he doesn’t do enough to organize the line and is too frequently out of position. He’s probably better than what we have in all our minds after that dreadful season. But he’s also probably not a lot better than that either.
Centerback
They. Need. Help.
But Diego Polenta could very well be what this team needs. The 27-year-old doesn’t quite have the big name cache you would think of when you say “how does this LA Galaxy team improve their backline?” but Polenta has shown quality last few years in Uruguay and has a history of being a leader on the field. Most superlatives about leadership and accountability are usually ones which I dismiss. They’re so closely associated with someone who got named the captain for one reason or another, and it doesn’t usually correlate with long term success at a new destination. However, the Galaxy have badly needed someone who can help organize and direct the backline over the past two seasons, and I get a strong feeling this could be “the guy”.
Daniel Steres and Dave Romney have not been the guys, however both have traits that I could get behind as 2nd or 3rd defensive CBs. They’re event type players and I have a theory about centerback pairings and how to find success. I think you need one that can be the organizer who maybe doesn’t show much very much in the “event” column (interceptions, tackles, etc.) but does the little things to make the other successful. The other needs to be “event” oriented type CB. In this case, Romny and Steres are both very good at gathering successful events but have huge holes elsewhere that impact how you view those events.
My hope would be that one, or even both, would leverage the addition of Polenta, who will help leverage both of these guys as ball winners while being able to hide some of their less admirable traits.
There is also a question of what to make from Tomas Hilliard-Arce who despite the backline being bad, was considered one of the top defensive college players in last year’s draft. It seemed difficult for the team to find him opportunities despite him looking competent.
Daniel Steres and Dave Romney have not been the guys, however, both have traits that I could get behind as 2nd or 3rd defensive CBs. They’re event type players, and I have a theory about centerback pairings and how to find success. I think you need one that can be the organizer who maybe doesn’t show much very much in the “event” column (interceptions, tackles, etc.) but does the little things to make the other successful. The other needs to be “event” oriented type CB. In this case, Romney and Steres are both very good at gathering successful events but have huge holes elsewhere that impact how you view those events.
My hope would be that one, or even both, would leverage the addition of Polenta, who will help leverage both of these guys as ball winners while being able to hide some of their less admirable traits.
There is also a question of what to make from Tomas Hilliard-Arce who despite the backline being bad, was considered one of the top defensive college players in last year’s draft. It seemed difficult for the team to find him opportunities despite him looking competent.
Fullback
The right-back position, on the other hand, is firmly in the hands of Rolf Feltscher. The Venezuelan looks to have a dominant role this year as he’s fully healed after almost three straight years of injuries which have limited him to less than a full cumulative season over that time. However, it seems odd that the team, once more, doesn’t really have a back-up option for Feltscher, who has an injury history. If needed, I’m assuming either Romney, Skjelvik or even Hugo Arellano could step into the role, but at a considerable drop-off.
Wide Midfielder
In front of Feltscher on the right wing will be Romain Alessandrini, who I already raved about above. The guy is a dynamite attacker either through creative measures for others or when necessary through means for himself. He’s going to be an impact attacker this year. You can almost already put it down, ten goals, ten assists.
The real question is where does Sebastian Lletget play when he’s healthy? He’s most likely going to play a vital role for this team but where is still unclear. He’s at times featured out wide, but he seems most able in the middle of the field, which all discussion from people in the know points to him playing.
If Lletget is headed to the center of the park, and all reports point to Schelotto leveraging a 4-4-2 formation—that would see that Kamara primarily is up top with Zlatan. That means the left wing will be comprised of Emmanuel Boateng, Efrain Alvarez, or Antuna.
The early word out of Galaxy camp is that Antuna could very well take the role, and young Alvarez will most certainly get minutes. But right now the most experienced starter the team has is Ema Boateng, and I suspect he’ll get the initial nod.
Central Midfielder
Teamed in midfield with Lletget will be Jona dos Santos. The real questions that I’m still not really sure how to answer are A) is he any good and B) is this a good tandem?
| Minutes | Touch% | Shot% | KeyPass% | xB% | Tackle% | PassPerDefAct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3034 | 14% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 91.9% | 61.0% | 161 | |
| 1169 | 10% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 82.6% | 51.0% | 134 | |
| 2882 | 14% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 83.0% | 68.0% | 144 | |
| 2969 | 13% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 87.6% | 68.0% | 143 | |
| 2775 | 12% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 92.3% | 63.0% | 74 | |
| 2796 | 13% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 95.2% | 72.0% | 125 | |
| 1647 | 11% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 89.5% | 84.0% | 97 | |
| 1943 | 12% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 91.8% | 82.0% | 129 | |
| 2736 | 12% | 0.9% | 4.6% | 81.9% | 70.0% | 110 | |
| 3301 | 12% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 91.9% | 58.0% | 107 | |
| 2022 | 14% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 93.1% | 62.0% | 113 |