2021 MLS Season Previews: LA Galaxy, New York City, and Sporting Kansas City
/We’re publishing three team previews every weekday until MLS First Kick on April 16th. You can find all of them here.
Today we’re looking at three teams who have been among MLS’s best teams for most of their history, but didn’t do much in 2020 and are looking to return to form in 2021.
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Los Angeles Galaxy: Kljestan Un Club
By Eric Walcott
Not a lot good can be said about the LA Galaxy in 2020. In our 2020 season preview, Ian wrote this:
“Worst Case Scenario: None of that happens. Injuries pile up, and LA’s lack of depth up front can’t shield a back line that just simply isn’t up to snuff. There are great moments and thrilling matches when LA can get all of it’s attacking pieces in the same room, but this top heavy roster isn’t sustainable over the course of an entire season. This LA doesn’t make the playoffs again.”
Turns out even that might have been a rosy outlook, given even the great moments were mostly missing for the Galaxy in 2020. Perhaps the most positive spin one could put on the Galaxy’s 2020 season was that the underlying numbers suggest they should’ve been just a bit better than they actually were. The Galaxy underperformed their xG, gave up more goals than expected, and picked up five points fewer than expected. That five points would have bumped them up a whole one spot in the West to be still-not-in-the-playoffs in a season where two-thirds of the conference made the playoffs, so yeah... not great.
The Galaxy will have to replace the production of Cristian Pavon, the 2nd best player in MLS in 2020 according to goals added
This offseason was yet another offseason of significant change for the Galaxy, starting at the top. Out went Guillermo Barros Schelotto and in came Greg Vanney from Toronto. Out went the Galaxy’s best player in Cristian Pavon, along with a number of players who were expected to be solid contributors but didn’t really add much, like Joe Corona and Perry Kitchen. Out went GK David Bingham who, according to G-xG, was the worst shot-stopper in MLS last season.
In came, among others, GK Jonathan Bond, LB Jorge Villafaña, CB Derrick Williams, and a pair of French wingers in Samuel Grandsir and Kevin Cabral. Victor Vazquez also made his return to MLS.
In very un-Galaxy fashion, none of the moves made this offseason were very flashy. They didn’t pick up a huge name that would bring a lot of eyeballs. For the most part, they made moves to address their biggest weaknesses. Bond hasn’t played a ton the last couple of seasons, but assuming he’s the starter it’s hard to imagine being worse than Bingham. They basically rebuilt a backline that has been a problem for a few years now, and Grandsir and Cabral join to try to fill a Pavon-sized hole on the wings. The only area the Galaxy haven’t made any real changes is in the midfield. We’ll cover that later.
Three Big Questions
How does Greg Vanney change how the Galaxy play and can they create the chances needed for Chicharito to be the best version of himself?
| Possession | Pressures | Pressure % | Tackles | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maybe the most interesting question about the Galaxy surrounds the impact of new head coach Greg Vanney. Vanney’s arrival appears to signal, or at least coincide with, a shift in culture for the Galaxy. They are showing a greater emphasis on youth (though we’ve heard that before from LA) and a focus on building a complete team rather than one that lives or dies by Zlatan. How they will look on the field is a big question. If Vanney’s time in Toronto is any indication, expect the Galaxy to play less of a pressing game than most of the league and be possession heavy in the attack. It is interesting to note how effective TFC was in winning the ball back when they did apply pressure, ranking 2nd in MLS in the percentage of times they successfully won possession within five seconds of applying pressure, according to FBRef.
In terms of shot creation, TFC were much better shot-creators than the Galaxy last season, though not elite. What’s more interesting is the type of shot-creating action. Toronto was much more likely to create shots off of open-play passes, whereas the Galaxy relied more on set pieces and dribbles. That may work for Cristian Pavon (0.13 goals added per 90 through dribbles), but it’s not a great way to get the best out of Chicharito (-0.02 goals added per 90 through dribbles).
| Shot-Creating Actions/90 (Rank) | Live-ball pass | Dead-ball pass | Dribble | Shot | Foul | Defenive Action | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
While Chicharito was certainly a major disappointment in 2020, the Galaxy attack around him likely had a lot to do with that. Building an attack that relies on dribbles, set pieces, and crosses (Galaxy led MLS in crosses attempted per 90, but were just 17th in crosses completed into the 18-yard box), doesn’t seem like the way to get the best out of him. If Vanney can transform how the Galaxy attack to get the best out of Chicharito, that will go a long way to significant improvements for both player and club in 2021.
Does the offseason remake of their backline work?
Big shrug emoji here. The Galaxy certainly made changes, and maybe a different style of play helps too. That said, Derrick Williams struggled for playing time on a defense that was average at best in the Championship, and Jonathan Bond has played nine first-team games since the 2017/18 season, so...we’ll see.
Who lines up in midfield?
It’s probably safe to assume that, when healthy, Jonathan dos Santos and Sebastian Lletget will be regular starters in the midfield. Assuming Vanney goes with a three-man midfield, what’s the plan beyond that? Maybe he’s hoping to rotate Kljestan and Vazquez in a more attacking role and hope they can recapture some of their magic from previous seasons? That seems risky.
Maybe the real questions here should be “Is Efra Alvarez ready?” followed by “Is Alvarez a winger or a central attacking mid?” If Alvarez is ready to take that next step in his career, and if he can do it in the middle of the field, that clears a lot of things up for the Galaxy.
A quick look at how Alvarez’s goals added numbers stack up against two of last year’s best young creative midfielders in Bassett and Aaronson, as well as two of the best overall, in Valeri and Reynoso, could be a cause for optimism. It’s worth noting most of these minutes came as a winger for Alvarez, but if he can translate this into the middle there’s promise, though that would likely require a big jump in Efra’s passing contribution to the attack
| Dribbling | Fouling | Interrupting | Passing | Receiving | Shooting | Goals Added | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.28 | |
| 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 | -0.07 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.20 | |
| -0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | -0.02 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.19 | |
| 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.30 | |
| 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.25 |
Another possible option is that the Galaxy play in either a 4-4-1-1, or more of a narrow diamond 4-1-2-1-2, both of which we saw from Toronto FC last year quite a bit. The two forward shape feels less likely, unless Vanney loves Ethan Zubak, though Cabral has made 12 starts at center forward this season for Valenciennes, according to Transfermarkt. While he looks to be primarily a winger, if Vanney likes him in the middle, that could open up options for the Galaxy.
2021 Prognosis
The Galaxy made a lot of changes, yet it still doesn’t feel like there’s a clear plan. Maybe that plan exists and just isn’t visible yet. It feels more likely that they’re taking chances on players being able to fill important positions without really building towards anything specific, which is a problem that has plagued them for a few years now. There’s also VERY little depth, so even if all the new signings hit (a big if), it could all fall apart with a few injuries. Anything can happen in MLS, but it feels like the best-case scenario for this team is that they get to the playoffs, and along the way develop that identity they can build on for future seasons.
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New York City: Deila, Deila Bills Y’all
By Kevin Nelson
Six years into their existence, the financial muscle you’d expect from a global conglomerate ownership like City Football Group has atrophied to the point where it’s fair to consider NYCFC closer to a mid-table budget team. Guaranteed roster spending has been on the decline every year since the team’s second season and a roster budget of ~$10.5 million in 2019 was an all time low on record.
Last season’s salaries have not been made publicly available, but there is no reason to suspect roster spending went anywhere but down with the $600,000 in combined salary departing with Ebenezer Ofori and Ben Sweat replaced by compensation to incomers Nicolas Acevedo and Gudi Thorarinsson that is almost certainly less than that, even if you factor in a potential raise for Keaton Parks when his move from Benfica was made permanent. This tightening of the purse strings all occurred prior to the global pandemic and it’s intuitive to suspect suppressed revenues last season will inspire NYCFC to lean further into the path of frugality in 2021.
Starting 2020 without a third designated player after Alexandru Mitrita unceremoniously left for Saudi Arabia during last season’s playoff push is the most obvious indicator of this trend. Reports strongly suggest 21-year-old Uruguayan winger Santiago Rodriguez will fill that slot this summer but it’s still fair to say NYCFC have not maximized those roster spots. Even if you forgive the team for compiling a designated player ensemble less glamorous than the David Villa, Frank Lampard, and Andrea Pirlo trio, the lack of investment extends throughout the roster.
Head coach Ronny Deila has publicly expressed his displeasure this preseason, exclaiming “the depth is what is not good enough to do something in the MLS. We need more quality players in.” Those comments did come prior to the recent signings of midfielder Alfredo Morales and forward Thiago Andrade but managerial dissatisfaction is not novel here. His predecessor, Dome Torrent, had similar misgivings, labeling Heber his 9th choice striker target in a final expression of frustration before voluntarily leaving with a year remaining on his contract. Luckily for NYCFC, that 9th choice striker became one of the team’s most important players but less fortunately, he will be recovering from a knee injury until at least June. His loss has finally been supplemented with Andrade, who joins winger-striker hybrid Valentin Castellanos and his league best 0.64 expected goals per 96 as the lone central attacking options.
Torrent’s dissatisfaction has become Deila’s and he likely resorts to the academy more than any previous version of NYCFC as part of a patchwork solution to his depth concerns. Center back, defensive midfielder hybrid James Sands is already one of the team’s most important players and carries the torch for a group that will certainly set a record for minutes from homegrown players. He’s joined by Tayvon Gray and Justin Haak, both of whom are expected to inherit larger backup roles in defense and midfield, respectively.
But the homegrown most likely to step into the spotlight is 19-year-old winger Andres Jasson, who’s sheer existence on this roster can be attributed to the Ivy League’s decision to cancel last season, uprooting plans to play college soccer for Yale University and pushing him back into NYCFC’s arms. Two preseasons plus a 20 minute cameo in the second leg loss to Tigres in the CONCACAF Champions League are all we have to go by in evaluating Jasson but early returns are promising. Contributing to two goals and winning two penalties across three strong preseason games has given Deila the confidence to proclaim Jasson the favorite for starting left winger, where his right-footedness fits his coach’s preference for inverted and inside wingers within a 4-2-3-1.
NYC is in the upper right corner
Even if Jasson answers the left wing question coming into 2020, the question of the fullback overlapping him is still to be determined. Ronald Matarrita has held down the left back spot for years but was sold to FC Cincinnati despite a career season in MLS, finishing 9th and 2nd among all players and fullbacks in g+ per 96, respectively. The lone fullback to surpass his production was teammate Anton Tinnerholm, illustrating the importance Deila’s tactics puts on the wide defenders. Replacing Matarrita 1.98 goals added was never going to be easy and it appears NYCFC has taken inspiration from the scene in Moneyball when Billy Beane decides to recreate Jason Giambi in the aggregate.
Malte Amundsen and Chris Gloster join incumbent Gudi Thorarinsson to form a three-headed monster (let’s use this term generously) at left back. Thorarinsson’s first season in New York was less than convincing and his penalty kick saved by an Orlando City right back to end their season was so horrific that it was reasonable to suspect him to not survive the offseason. The newcomers provide more excitement with US youth international Gloster joining from PSV Eindhoven’s U23 team as a post hype sleeper and Amundsen impressing enough to warrant a $1.6 million transfer fee despite a single full season in Denmark’s top flight. For all their promise, neither are proven commodities and the team is accepting some risk in trusting this group to fulfill Matarrita’s value.
Whether one of these players blossoms into a capable Matarrita replacement or Deila cobbles together a rotation to collectively accrue his production is the limiting factor on NYCFC’s ceiling in 2020. It is also a test of how effective this increasingly budget conscious management style can be. Big spending isn’t necessarily positively correlated to winning, but the range of successful outcomes broadens if CFG’s immense financial depth trickled down into immense roster depth. Deila led last year’s roster to a +0.45 expected goal differential per game, 3rd best in MLS and the best in the franchise’s history so perhaps he can squeeze another successful season out of stagnating roster resources. However, his job is more challenging than ever as he grapples without Matarrita and captain Alexander Ring, another sacrificial lamb to the budgetary gods, as all signs currently point to NYCFC converging into an average budget spender within the MLS ranks.
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Kansas City: Salloi Compare Thee to a Summer's Dia?
By Cameron Troshynski
Over the years, Peter Vermes has expressed a desire to one day field a starting 11 consisting entirely of homegrown players. In 2021, that dream will be possible for the first time, as SKC signed four new homegrowns, bringing their total up to 12. That’s the most homegrowns of any team in the league, tied with the Colorado Rapids and CF Montreal. Sporting isn’t just signing homegrowns to fill out the roster for cheap, either. In 2020, only two teams had players aged 20 or younger play more minutes than SKC did: FC Dallas and the New York Red Bulls. If you were to construct a two-deep depth chart for the first team, six homegrown players would feature in it, including two starters: 18 year-old attacking midfielder Gianluca Busio and 21 year-old right back Jaylin Lindsey.
Busio, the crown jewel of the SKC academy, has increased his playing time in each season since he signed with the first team in 2017 at the age of 15. At the time, he was the second youngest signing in MLS history. Three years later, the 18 year-old now wears the number 10 and says he’s ready to put the team on his back. He’s hoping to make the leap that players like Brendan Aaronson and Tyler Adams have made before him. By the numbers, you could argue he’s already good enough, it’s just about more minutes and more recognition. In his three years in MLS, Busio has put up g+ numbers of 0.09, 0.08, and 0.0 above average - all impressive for a kid still three years away from buying his first beer. Compare that to midfielders like Aaronson (-0.01 and -0.12) or Adams, (-0.15, -0.03, and 0.01) and Busio’s numbers are pretty favorable - especially considering he started his MLS career at a younger age than both players. If all of the noise from preseason is accurate, then Busio hasn’t just taken a step forward - he’s taken several steps and is ready to take this team as far as it can go. Proof: this banger. If that’s the case, then Busio could be the next young American MLS player to be sold for millions of dollars to a European team. If he hasn’t taken a step forward, then he’ll still be a solid contributor in the midfield of a team expected to be a contender in the Western conference.
Jaylin Lindsey has had a bit less hype and a bit less linear development than Busio, but he’s also found himself in possession of plenty of first team minutes and an inside track to many more. After getting 603 minutes in 2018, playing his way to 0.19 g+, he suffered an injury in 2019 that mostly held him out of any playing time, getting only 94 minutes with the first team. He returned in a big way in 2020, partially aided by an injury to Graham Zusi, playing 1156 minutes. His g+ in 2020 was an unremarkable -0.26, but for a 21 year-old returning from injury and getting starter’s minutes for the top team in the West, that mark is a good building block. In the season immediately preceding their sales, outside backs Cannon and Davies put up g+ numbers of -.023 and -.062 respectively. That’s not to say Lindsey will follow the career trajectory of either of those players, but to showcase that with his minutes and relative production, Lindsey is well positioned to make the right back spot his own in 2021. Zusi is reportedly not going to be healthy/fit enough for the start of the season, so Lindsey will enter as the incumbent with an opportunity to fend off the veteran and cement himself in the lineup every week.
Daniel Salloi used to be cemented in the lineup, especially in 2018 when he scored 11 goals and assisted seven in 2291 minutes. He finished off his scoring campaign that year with a no-look goal against RSL in the playoffs, and since then he’s scored exactly one goal, late in 2019. He’s seen his minutes dwindle to 1541 in 2019 and a mere 165 in 2020, the wrong sort of trend you want to see from a homegrown forward. The 24 year-old is in the last year of his contract, and if he doesn’t make it count I expect we’ll see him in something other than Sporting Blue next season. He enters the season as the likely second choice at LW, and given the lack of veteran depth in the attack, he’ll be given every opportunity to prove that he deserves to stay in Kansas City.
The rest of the SKC homegrowns have less experience, but a few of them could feature as Sporting navigates a busy MLS schedule, with 34 regular season games between April 17 and November 7, not including the Leagues Cup and potential US Open Cup games, plus international absences for some of SKC’s top players. Felipe Hernandez should appear a few times in midfield, backing up Ilie at the six. Wilson Harris finally got a first team contract after becoming the youngest player ever to hit 20 career goals in the USL Championship. He’ll look to back up Alan Pulido, who only played in 12 of SKC’s 21 regular season games in 2021. Cameron Duke, Grayson Barber, Kaveh Rad, and Tyler Freeman could see a few minutes here and there as offensive depth, but they’re more likely to feature alongside Ozzie Cisneros and Brooks Thompson on SKCII this season.
Having so many young players shouldn’t cap SKC’s ceiling too much, like it has for NYRB and FC Dallas. Vermes and the front office have done a good job surrounding their young talent with veterans more than capable of leading and elevating the team. Having so many inexperienced players set to get significant playing time likely means Sporting won’t be in the running for the Supporter’s Shield, as the kids will inevitably make kid mistakes while they learn and grow. That doesn’t mean the US Open Cup or MLS Cup is out of their grasp. With match-winners like Alan Pulido, Johnny Russell, and Gadi Kinda on the team, Kansas City can compete with the best in the league in a knockout competition, relying on its young players to be a part of a whole rather than needing them to be superstars in their own right. SKC’s homegrowns don’t have to be best 11 players like Aaronson and Adams in order for the team to win trophies - but they can be, and Vermes will give them every opportunity to show it.