The Most Pressing Questions in MLS
/By Nate Gilman
Pressing has become a bigger and bigger part of the identity of soccer globally within the last decade. MLS teams have shifted along with the global trends. Take the New York Red Bulls and Philadelphia Union: two teams with an aggressive pressing style fundamental in the clubs’ DNA and instilled from the very top of the organization. More and more MLS teams are pressing aggressively, and though not all teams are following the all-out model set by the Red Bulls and Union, pressing has become a standard element of many teams’ gameplans.
But how widespread is it really? And what are some of the key differences in strategies? Using pressure data from Football Reference and Statsbomb, I tried to make some sense of where MLS teams stand in the pressing landscape.
Just looking at changes between last season and where we are this season is instructive. Eight teams are pressuring opponents more than ten times more per match and three teams, NYRB and Philadelphia are pressing more than twenty times more per match than last year.
So far in 2022, only nine teams have seen a drop-off in successful pressure percentage, that is how often a team wins back possession within five seconds of pressure being applied. NYRB and Philadelphia, the aforementioned teams with dramatically higher pressing frequency this season, have both seen a drop in efficiency in 2022. Inter Miami, the Seattle Sounders, Sporting KC, and the Houston Dynamo are the only clubs pressing less in 2022 and recovering possession at a lower rate than last year.
Where on the field matters too
Another element worth examining in this year-over-year context is where MLS teams are pressing. So far in 2022, a larger share of pressures are occurring higher up the field for most teams. For instance, Atlanta United, the LA Galaxy, and the San Jose Earthquakes all increased the percentage of attacking third pressures by more than 5%. None of those clubs are pressing much more or less overall than they did in 2021 - they’ve just moved more of those pressures higher up the field.
The 2022 sample size is still small. Summer weather hasn’t really been a factor yet and wear and tear injuries haven’t yet fully taken their toll for most teams. How sustainable these year-to-year changes remains to be seen.
Some other shifts of note worth highlighting:
Toronto: The Bob Bradley effect is real. Bradley implemented very effective pressing schemes at LAFC over the last couple of seasons and he’s seemingly remade Toronto’s press already. Whereas at LAFC in previous years, Bradley favored a higher pressing line, in Toronto, he’s set the team up to press less in the attacking third. However, Toronto FC are pressing more often and, more importantly, winning the ball much more often. As you’ll see though, that doesn’t necessarily mean everything is going well.
LAFC: Following the departure of Bob Bradley, Steve Cherundolo pushed LAFC’s press higher up the field, though dialed back the frequency just a little bit. At this point in the season, nearly 30% of LAFC’s pressures are occurring in its opponents’ defensive thirds, on pace for the highest mark in the league since 2019.
Sporting KC: Peter Vermes, who blamed Sporting KC’s playoff exit last season on tired legs due to aggressive pressing, has implemented changes in 2022. Up until last week, SKC was pressing still pressing high up the pitch but less frequently overall. Then Vermes’ side pressured NYCFC 261 times, largely in the middle and defensive thirds of the field. As the season progresses, we'll find out how serious Vermes is about dialing back the frequency of ball pressure or if the NYCFC game was a sign of a return to last year's style.
Columbus: Caleb Porter’s side is pressing less per match so far but, as was mentioned above, more of that pressure is happening higher up the field. It seems to be working too, with the Crew winning possession back at a higher rate than last season and the defen
FC Cincinnati: MLS watchers shouldn’t be surprised that new manager Pat Noonan, most recently an assistant to Jim Curtain in Philadelphia, has pushed the Orange and Blue into more aggressive pressing situations. FCC is pressing more often, higher up the field, and recovering possession more often in 2022 than last season.
Vancouver: In Vanni Sartini’s first full season, Vancouver is putting opponents under pressure more, with the sixth-highest pressures per 90 minutes in MLS. However, those pressures have been less effective, the lowest in the league. As it stands, the Whitecaps’ 24.5 successful pressure percentage is one of the lowest in MLS going back to 2019.
Does it matter?
So is there an effect between pressures, successful pressures, and attacking third pressures on limiting chances for opponents? Looking at pressures per 90 minutes and non-penalty expected goals we can see that NYRB, Philadelphia, and LAFC are some of the only examples of teams pressing at an above average rate that have put up good defensive numbers in both 2021 and 2022. Unfortunately, the offensive element of an aggressive pressing system, that is, chances generated off of turnovers high up the field, is much harder to measure, especially with public data.
When looking for any connections between successful pressures and a good defensive record, LAFC and NYRB pop up in the good-at-both quadrant, unsurprisingly. The outliers that are Toronto and San Jose in 2022 are very apparent, however. Both those teams are recovering possession after pressures at very high rates but still have the worst defensive records in MLS.
The last piece of this is looking at teams pressing high. Again, NYRB, LAFC, and Philadelphia are all in the successful pressing, low NPxG against quadrant but, so far in 2022, a number of other teams have joined them. Columbus, Sporting KC, and Atlanta United have ended up with at least solid defensive records while pressing high but not as aggressively on a per 90 minute basis. Seattle has had the opposite experience, pressing more often in the attacking third but allowing more chances against.
All of this to say, there are multiple ways to set up and still keep your opponent from creating good chances. If you’re not the Red Bulls, the Union, or LAFC, maintaining an aggressive pressing system and preventing chances seems to be a tough ask. However, at least up until this point in 2022, teams pressing opponents in the final third more often seem to have had better defensive results. At the same time, a team like Nashville can still sit deeper and still put up solid defensive numbers.
Even with more teams across MLS pressuring opponents on the ball more often, the most important thing still seems to be that a defensive structure, no matter how aggressive, is well set up. How these numbers continue to shift as minutes pile up throughout the summer certainly bears watching.