Offseason Outlook: New York Red Bulls
/By Alex Bartiromo (too cool to use twitter)
The New York Red Bulls have a strong developmental and tactical system in place, from the first team to the academy, allowing them to maintain a high floor performance-wise, as the losses of several high-profile players have not negatively affected them as much as expected. However, the team’s lack of spending (3rd lowest salary outlay in the league) on high-end talent appeared to catch up with them this season, as their point total plummeted from 71 to 48. More importantly in terms of future performance, its xP dropped from 58.8 to 47.6. Additionally, its xGD dropped from the second highest in the league in 2018—18.6—to right around the equator (3.8). In English, the Red Bulls went from being one of the league’s elite teams to one that was merely average. With major contracts like Bradley Wright-Phillips’ coming off the books this offseason, as well as the potential departure of stalwart and 2018 MLS Defender of the Year Aaron Long, the Red Bulls have the opportunity to retool their roster significantly to complement their steady pipeline of MLS-ready academy players. Either that, or they are looking at a severe personnel crisis that could see them lose ground to more profligate clubs.
The Numbers
2019 Contract Outlay (Guaranteed Salary): $8,301,854
Projected 2020 Contract Outlay: $5,583,455
Expiring Contracts:
Josh Sims (Loan Expired)
Adreas Ivan (Waived in August - $330,600)
Connor Lade (Retired - $132,750)
Alex Muyl ($127,750)
Bradley Wright-Phillips ($1,380,000)
Luis Robles ($490,000 - signed by MIA)
Vincent Bezecourt ($73,296)
Evan Louro ($70,250)
Areas of Depth
That being said, let’s turn the panic dial down for a minute and look at some of the unheralded strengths of this team; areas where it can continue to build on.
Despite many fewer goals scored than in 2018, the Red Bulls weren’t much worse defensively, allowing only 2.4 more xGA all season, a testament to the consistency of veteran players on the backline such as Aaron Long, Tim Parker, and Kemar Lawrence. Long actually increased his defensive action and recovery numbers from his 2018 Defender of the Year campaign, though that could be explained by the Red Bulls’ more pedestrian offense and inability to maintain pressure on the other side. Parker replicated his 2018 DA&R numbers, and continues to be valuable terms in his progressive passes, a skill which complements Long’s high-engagement style. And Lawrence continues to be a defensive action machine, racking up 8.1 tackles, interceptions, blocks, and clearances per 96 minutes, better than all but 19% of fullbacks in MLS. His season over season consistency in this department is a major and underrated point of stability for this Red Bulls side.
This defensive solidity is coupled by two game-changing players that any future Red Bulls offense will look to build around in Kaku and Daniel Royer. Although he isn’t recognized as one, Royer continues to be a star winger in MLS, racking up more total xG (13.5) and p96 xG (.52) than anyone at his position but Carlos Vela, who literally had the greatest season in the history of MLS. Royer also added assists to his game this year, jumping from the 23rd percentile among wingers with .09 xA from open play in 2018 to 71st (.16). His xG+xA is 10th best in the entire league among all players.
Although the narrative around Kaku was more negative, centering around his frustrated desire for a move to Club Ámerica, he still managed to, oh I don’t know, have the 4th highest xA among attacking midfielders, behind only Nicolas Lodeiro, Diego Valeri, and Pity Martinez. Gamarra is also a useful contributor to the Red Bulls pressing scheme, recovering 6.1 loose balls per 96.
Between these two players, the Red Bulls have an attacking foundation to build on that many teams around the league would envy. The team is not starting from scratch.
(As an aside, I want to shout out the contributions to this team of friend of ASA Sean Davis, who has somehow managed to transform himself into four different players in four consecutive seasons. His skillful versatility will allow the Red Bulls more slack in what type of player they can acquire, and he deserves more recognition as one of the upper echelon CMs in MLS.)
Areas of Need
In an interview with mlssoccer.com’s Andrew Vazzano, New York Red Bulls’ Sporting Director Denis Hamlett gave this quote: “We have a lot of roster spots available...We’ve made some big decisions, so now we have to go out and fill those shoes, per se. That’s something we’re going to do, because we know we need to do that.” I don’t know exactly what positions he was referring to, per se, but Hamlett knows as well as I do that this team needs a new striker to lead the line.
In 2018, the Red Bulls amassed 59 xGF, second in the league only to a record-breaking Atlanta side. In 2019? 47.6, a 19% drop and good for 12th best in the league. Much of the credit must go to Bradley Wright-Phillips’ decline from 15.3 xG to only 4.9. The Red Bulls did a good job finding replacements from within, but combined, BWP, Brian White and Tom Barlow put up 13.7 xG, less than Wright-Phillips’ individual number from a season ago. With a little over 2.8 million off the books in contracts this offseason and only one DP left on the roster, it is imperative that the Red Bulls find a replacement for the legend, #99.
Another hole the Red Bulls need to fill is at Right Winger. Josh Sims struggled to adapt to the league in his half season here, but he was definitely...there. If the Red Bulls fail to renew his loan from Southampton, they won’t have any starting players at that position. The return from injury of Florian Valot should alleviate the pressure a little bit, but the team has the cap and roster space to aim for something higher.
Additionally, all-terrain right fullback Michael Murillo has been transferred to Belgian giants RSC Anderlecht, which could create another headache for Hamlett this offseason if either of those moves transpires. Last season, Rece Buckmaster stepped in at key moments, looking more or less like a professional soccer player, but to have him replace Murillo on a full time basis would represent a huge downgrade. Finding a replacement that gives the team as much attacking penetration will be a prority. Long has also been linked to various clubs in England; losing him would create yet another hole for this already frayed squad.
The team could also look for another central midfielder to pair with Davis, with the combination of Marc Rzatkowski and the young Cristian Casseres, Jr. underwhelming last season. Right now, however, all eyes are on the front of the line. Will the Red Bulls finally spend like some of their rivals, or will they continue to look internally for solutions to their roster holes?