Single Game xG is here to stay - is it useful?

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Single Game xG is here to stay - is it useful?

It’s been documented for a while that Expected Goals is the best single metric for understanding performance of a soccer team and predicting it’s future. It outperforms possession, total shots ratio, goal difference, points scored, and other fun but inferior statistics. The word on expected goals has been slowly on the rise since ASA’s first model was released in 2013. For kicks, below is an indexed view of times the metric has been searched for in the United States since that grand moment in time. Searches reached an all-time high this past February.

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Ebb-and-flow: Using xPG to capture soccer’s momentum swings

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Ebb-and-flow: Using xPG to capture soccer’s momentum swings

Recently we introduced Expected Possession Goals (xPG) as an experimental metric. In our latest article, we introduced four uses of xPG. Like any good experiment, things are subject to change as you take input. To help xPG be a little easier to consume, we’re updating some of the terms to be more understandable:

Chance xPG (formerly called Positive xPG) is the total value of a possession based on weighted values gained from actions such as ball-winning actions, passes, dribbles and shots. It is assigned to all the players involved in a possession. A player or team with high Chance xPG is getting the ball into higher opportunity areas for a shot. Chance xPG is expressed in a positive value.

Shot xPG (formerly called Successful xPG) is the total Chance xPG earned by possessions ending in a shot. Players and teams with a high Shot xPG relative to Chance xPG are ones which are good at turning chances into shots. Easy, right?

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