Lowered Expectations: The Misidentification of Will Johnson

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Welcome to Lowered Expectations! Here we review some of the weekend’s best open-play shot attempts which did not quite live up to expectations. We break down the GIFs through the lens of our expected goal model and discuss each one evaluating the results, and  also the process.

 

This week, we have a couple of shots by Houston, which gives us opportunity to discuss their overall team as they leave Week 7 undefeated. Columbus makes a surprise appearance lead by Pedro Santos. Philadelphia gives me an opportunity to rant about crosses. There is a Will Johnson imposter in Orlando, we talk about Big Chances in expected goal models and lastly we take on goals shot from crazy angles!  LET’S GET TO IT!

 

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Lowered Expectations: We're Back!

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Lowered Expectations: We're Back!

WELCOME BACK EVERYONE! It’s time for 2019 Lowered Expectations.

Welcome to Lowered Expectations, 2019 edition! Each week, we go about reviewing GIFs of the weekend’s best open-play shot attempts which did not quite live up to expectations (and rarely do we update this paragraph). We look at each one and not only evaluate the results, but also the process leading to them.

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Matt Hedges' Quiet New Role in Dallas

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Matt Hedges' Quiet New Role in Dallas

This past offseason Dallas hired Academy Director Luchi Gonzalez as the teams new head coach and Oscar Pareja’s replacement. Gonzalez was commissioned with the task of integrating the organization’s youth with the first team. This is a rather fitting assignment since over the last three years Gonzalez was, as mentioned, the Academy Director.

Obviously Gonzalez is going to be the one who best knows what Dallas has in terms of young talent, and how to find a tactical style that best fits their pieces. He’s brought with him fresh tactics to incorporate the young talented players, and he comes at a time when Dallas needed a twist to their first team’s style. The departure of Mauro Diaz, the little unicorn, has caused consternation in how the attack operated after his transfer and lead to issues of its own last summer.

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Sporting KC 2019 Season Preview

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Sporting KC 2019 Season Preview

In the Sporting Kansas City playoff preview last year I wrote that for SKC in 2018, the bottom didn’t fall out. That doesn’t sound particularly noteworthy, but it has been an ongoing theme through the years with Peter Vermes’ teams. His up tempo and high press style has often faced scrutiny due lack of rotation. It’s led some to question whether Vermes’ tactical approach is viable for 34 to 40 games per season.

But their late season volatility isn’t all that surprising when you consider how a lack of depth during an MLS season can cause issues. It’s even less surprising that SKC would have encountered it considering their organizational constraints over the years.

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Los Angeles Galaxy 2019 Season Preview

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Los Angeles Galaxy 2019 Season Preview

Undisputedly, last year was a disappointment... wait, I used that line already. Oh, well... this is pretty near the end of our “we probably should have made the playoffs but something went wrong” team previews fashion line. The Galaxy may have finally found the right management pieces but are they ready to lead the organization back to glory this season?

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Houston Dynamo 2019 Season Preview

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Houston Dynamo 2019 Season Preview

Last season was a year of ups and downs for the Dynamo; they won the US Open Cup but didn’t make the playoffs. They’ll be hoping that some key offseason additions get them back into the Western Conference race in 2019.

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Postseason Preview: Atlanta United FC

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Postseason Preview: Atlanta United FC

We joke about it. Atlanta has become the Marcia Brady of Major League Soccer and while that’s annoying to most all of us, it’s also not undeserved. This talented team has not only assembled a rare grouping of talent but they’ve been able to build upon their first season and grow to become a giant in this league.

While the narratives are often what they are this is a good opportunity to put into context what Atlanta has truly accomplished and what they are at their bones. A really really good team that has few flaws and has managed to minimize their opponents ability to expose those flaws.

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Postseason Preview: Sporting Kansas City

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Spoiler alert: Over the course of the last eight seasons, from 2011 to 2018, we’ve collected shot data. We have a lot of spreadsheets. And if you asked me for one specific thing, one stat that stood out among those very large “csv” files, pertaining to Sporting Kansas City, I’d tell you this; Peter Vermes and his teams have a +88 expected goal differential dating back to 2011, not only the highest in Major League Soccer during that span but also the highest by almost 30 goals.

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Lowered Expectations: Week 31

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Welcome to Lowered Expectations, week 29 edition! Each week, we go about posting chalkboards and GIFs of the weekend’s best open-play shot attempts which did not quite live up to expectations (and rarely do we update this paragraph). We look at each one and not only evaluate the results, but also the process leading to them.

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