Priors and Penalties: Finding the best penalty takers with Bayes

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Priors and Penalties: Finding the best penalty takers with Bayes

It’s MLS playoff time, and that means the possibility of penalties and shootouts. Rodrigo Schlegel led Orlando to victory after Pedro Gallese was sent off. Zack Steffen earned a move to Manchester City, in large part, due to leading Columbus to two penalty shootout victories. Portland named a bar in Providence Park after the famous double post shot in the marathon 2015 shootout against Sporting KC. Seattle won their first MLS Cup without registering a shot on goal by winning a shootout. Landon Donovan blasted his penalty over the bar to hand RSL the 2009 MLS Cup. Penalties and shootouts are remembered in ways that few other plays are.

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2020 Season Preview: Sporting Kansas City

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2020 Season Preview: Sporting Kansas City

A common refrain of Sporting Kansas City season previews from offseasons past is “get a center forward.” Here are some quotes from past ASA and MLSsoccer.com previews to that effect:

  • “Up top, SKC again has depth, but are still lacking a proven MLS goal-scorer.”

  • “There are a few questions, though, with Kristzian Nemeth stepping into the club's starting center forward role.”

  • “However, the talk will almost always turn back to that No. 9 position. It's not that Sporting have been completely deficient there over the years, it's just that they've never really found a solution that stuck.”

  • “What Vermes hasn’t done (yet) is land the forward #SKCnation yearns for.”

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Offseason Outlook: Sporting Kansas City

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Offseason Outlook: Sporting Kansas City

Since sending Dom Dwyer to Orlando halfway through 2017, Sporting Kansas City have been without an above average center forward. Dwyer’s 2016 season was the last year an SKC player finished in the top 10 in MLS in goals. Since then, Kansas City’s leading scorers have logged just 8, 11, and 12 goals. In MLS 3.0, lacking an elite striker up top is a little bit inexcusable.

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Sporting KC 2019 Season Preview

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Sporting KC 2019 Season Preview

In the Sporting Kansas City playoff preview last year I wrote that for SKC in 2018, the bottom didn’t fall out. That doesn’t sound particularly noteworthy, but it has been an ongoing theme through the years with Peter Vermes’ teams. His up tempo and high press style has often faced scrutiny due lack of rotation. It’s led some to question whether Vermes’ tactical approach is viable for 34 to 40 games per season.

But their late season volatility isn’t all that surprising when you consider how a lack of depth during an MLS season can cause issues. It’s even less surprising that SKC would have encountered it considering their organizational constraints over the years.

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Ranking MLS' Best Foreign Goalkeepers

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Ranking MLS' Best Foreign Goalkeepers

It’s hard not to have a love-hate relationship with the MLS offseason. On one hand, we get to talk about goalkeepers more often. (A massive plus for anyone.) Typically the narrative wraps up a year-long performance in one or two sentences - “Goalkeeper X will look to build off of last year’s success by relying on his shot stopping and distribution skills.” - but that’s hardly a problem considering the larger headache that resurfaces this time of year. Every January we hear about an unnamed MLS team being linked to a foreign goalkeeper. We just had one happen last week, with a “lucrative offer” apparently on the table for a German goalkeeper.

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Zack Steffen: Three Areas to Improve

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Zack Steffen: Three Areas to Improve

Typically MLS’s spring season is marred by goalkeepers shaking off rust from an extended offseason, but this season fans have witnessed a breath of fresh air when it comes to goalkeeping. First, we've had a number of young goalkeepers far exceed expectations, despite not even being starters last year. Tyler Miller, Matt Turner, and Richard Sanchez were all sitting a bench somewhere last year but have shown the public (and previous employers) why they are worth putting in goal. Luis Robles and Alex Bono have done well in the Champions League, while Sean Johnson and Jimmy Maurer are seeing some resurgence in their careers. It hasn't been all daisies and roses, but compared to previous years, it’s been a blast seeing goalkeepers win games instead of costing their teams points.

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How Every Goalkeeper Fared in 2017

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By Luke Stanke (@lukestanke)

2017 MLS Goalkeeping in Review

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2017 MLS Goalkeeping in Review

It’s that time of year again. Every October excitement fills the air over fans and media answering the question “who was the best goalkeeper in MLS this year?” Let no fanbase’s optimism come into question, as just about each one thinks their team has one of the best goalkeepers in the league. But the award is a true test only the most recent meritocracy. It forgets the past and rewards the present. To put it more simply, if the MLS GOTY award had a muppet doppelganger, without question it would be the jolly Ghost of Christmas Present from the Muppet Christmas Carol. A goalkeeper could have a constant howler in 2016 but be redeemed through grit and hard work in 2017. A young goalkeeper could be thrust into the limelight and propel their career forward. An aging veteran could finally receive the recognition they've worked so hard for. There are too many fantastic narratives to come to fruition and only one can actualize.

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MLS Goalkeepers or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the BOB

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MLS Goalkeepers or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the BOB

It seems like every week I see multiple goalkeepers launch a hopeful goal kick to a teammate close to the sideline, only to overhit it by about twenty yards. While fans may appreciate the invitation to be a part of the game, they’d rather not see their goalkeeper concede possession so easily. MLS goalkeeping standards aren’t the same as La Liga, but surely there is some standard, right?
 
I accessed the secret scrolls of passing statistics dating back to the 2015 season to see just how often MLS goalkeepers launch a ball straight out of bounds. For this exercise, we’ll be using the stat BOB, which stands for for “Ball Out of Bounds” because having a stat acronym with two O’s would jump ASA’s rating from G to PG and I couldn't bring myself to be the sole reason for that. We don't have the data to separate punts, throws, passes, and goal kicks but I think this still addresses the topic at hand. As such, the below BOB pulls in all 'keeper distribution, be it a goal kick launched towards midfield or a toss to a nearby teammate a foot away.
 
Over a total of 1587 BOB in 1622 games puts the average BOB/gm for a goalkeeper at .978.

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Is Steve Clark a Good Fit for Columbus?

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Is Steve Clark a Good Fit for Columbus?

Over the course of a year, the Columbus Crew have gone from runner-ups in the 2015 MLS Cup to bottom dwellers, finishing ninth in the Eastern Conference in 2016. After losing a number of games off conceding late goals and tying over a third of their games, Crew fans are right to be polarized when evaluating their team, especially the defense. In 2015 the Crew conceded 53 goals and another 58 in 2016, both getting close to most in the league. Currently all eyes are on Steve Clark, with debate on both sides on if he is the right goalkeeper for Columbus.

Every team needs a goalkeeper that fits their style of play. For example, if a defense is bleeding crosses, they may want a strong goalkeeper to handle the dangerous lobs into the box. When looking at Columbus, it’s easy to look at the number of goals they’re giving up and think they need a better shot stopper, when in reality, Clark is above average on saving shots in both expected goals and save percentage. The Crew don’t need a spectacular shot stopper. Instead, there are two main things they require from their goalkeeper.

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