2020 Season Preview: Toronto FC
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Point-above-replacement values are explained here. Non-penalty expected goals + expected assists are explained here, and you can see all players’ xG+xA in our interactive expected goals tables. Touch percent is the percentage of total team touches by that player while he is on the field, which can be found in our interactive expected passing tables.
For the first time in what feels like a long time, Toronto FC have had a smooth off-season.
Well, other than that their club captain will miss 4 months due to ankle surgery that took the club 3 months to decide to have. Oh, and after Jozy Altidore has spent so much time injured he’s become a medical expert himself, and criticized the club’s handling of said ankle surgery. ( And also after the club opened up a DP slot and signed an almost 31 year old winger with 3 goals in his past 50 appearances, who has just come off a cruciate ligament tear.
However, TFC have kept most of their roster intact, with 90% of their minutes played from last season coming back (and the vast majority of their goals). Their whole front office and coaching staff remains in place, after losing a GM and longtime assistant manager last season. They actually have a platform to build on, instead of a sinking ship of scrambling pieces Greg Vanney has to make work in 15 minutes of preseason because they have to fly to Costa Rica to play Saprissa in the first round of CCL on what feels like the day after MLS Cup.
Somehow, this is smooth.
Last season was a tumultuous ride where TFC sorta-kinda-maybe put it together enough to have a deep playoff run, despite being mostly dominated in almost every game. But a lot of the problems that team faced were with availability and squad unfamiliarity. Pozuelo was new in town, Jozy and Bradley were either injured or away with the USMNT for much of the year, Omar Gonzalez didn’t arrive until later, yada yada yada. Toronto has a free run at it this year. No international tournaments, Bradley (no longer a DP), misses the first four months, but other than that everyone seems to be healthy and ready to go. With that, no excuses.
OffSeason Moves
Toronto FC are mostly looking at outgoings this offseason: Jon Bakero, Ryan Telfer, Aidan Daniels, and Caleb Patterson-Sewell combined for zero minutes and had their options declined. Long time club servant Drew Moor, as well as jaded TAM winger Nico Benezet move to Colorado, and Jay Chapman will patrol the midfield for Inter Miami this year. One name to commemorate is Ashtone Morgan, the first player to earn 100 appearances for the club. Morgan will suit up for RSL this year after having his option declined.
In terms of additions, Toronto FC are very much looking to promote from within with the homegrown signings of Rocco Romeo (19), Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty (15) and Jayden Nelson (17). Romeo is a tall, slender center back who spent last season on loan with HB Køge in Denmark, and might be ready for the next level. With Drew Moor heading out, it’s probable he fills in as a depth piece with mostly USL minutes. In a wholly different direction, both Marshall-Rutty and Nelson are very young, electric wide attackers, with Ali Curtis referring to JMR as “[…] the top player in his age group across Canada and the U.S.”. Nelson might scoop some rotational minutes, while Marshall-Rutty will play lots for TFCII, but these moves are probably to get them under professional contracts to protect them from foreign interest. The club also added Nyal Higgins, Ifunanyachi Achara, Malick Mbaye, and Simon Waever, through the draft. Through preseason thus far it looks like Achara is the only one with a shot at first-team time, with the others likely spending most of the year with TFCII.
The only key addition this offseason comes in the form of Pablo Piatti on a free transfer from RCD Espanyol. The Argentine winger broke onto the international stage at BMO field during the U-20 World Cup in 2007 but has hardly rooted up trees in recent times. Three goals and three assists in his past 53 appearances, with only marginally better underlying numbers to boot. Add in the age (31 in March) and the injury history (see: extensive), this just feels like a weird move when every other DP name bandied about was much younger. It is possible this is being looked at similarly to Victor Vazquez, with him being bought down in the summer when another DP target becomes available; but given the scarcity of allocation money around the club after buying down Bradley this year, it would seem unlikely without some trades happening.
Pablo Piatti’s injury history is…NOT GREAT? via transfermarkt.com
In terms of the actual player, Piatti has been an interesting-ish left-footed (not enough of those around the club) wide creator of a winger, who at his best was taking and creating four shots a game on a fringe Champions League team in Valencia. He absolutely could be a really interesting creative piece but given the circumstances around where he in his career, it’s hard to see him being really impactful over an entire MLS season. Piatti is yet to appear in preseason, but given his injury history, I would expect caution as he’s slowly integrated into the team.
Tactical Questions
Given the team mostly remains the same heading into 2020, a lot of the questions Greg Vanney faces are tactical, rather than personnel driven. Yes, there is the integration of a new designated player in Pablo Piatti, and yes, Michael Bradley is out for the first few months of the season, but those aren’t fun to talk about so I’m not going to.
The biggest question on the docket for TFC this year is whether they’re going to play in a back 3 or a back 4, or continue to flip flop in between. With Drew Moor heading back to Colorado, and the lack of really sound depth beyond Chris Mavinga and Omar Gonzalez it seems unlikely that it will be a consistent option in Toronto this year. However, given the quality of both Auro and Richie Laryea as passers and as wingbacks, we could see a weird hybrid 3-4 where one plays as the RCB and steps into midfield, while the other becomes the wingback. With Mavinga’s opening ability on the left, you could see some interesting build-up phase stuff between the two where the back three and the 6 form a diamond, the 8’s split either side of the 9, and the wingbacks get super high into a 3-3-4 like you sometimes see with Favre’s Dortmund.
Given Bradley’s absence and the propensity of some to convert Liam Fraser to a center back, it would be an interesting tactical wrinkle to play Fraser as the lone 6 where he can slide out to those wide CB spots in transition to defend, where it will hide some of his inability to stop anything in transition on his own. Or he could just play CB and all these words mean nothing. I’m not at all sure how Piatti fits here, he’s definitely not a wingback, and definitely doesn’t fit as a midfielder or as a striker. Similarly, the lack of a recognized second striker to pair with Altidore makes it a cumbersome fit, unless Pozuelo is playing a little bit more freely. Achara has shown really well in preseason, with a *ridiculous* dink against LAFC, and Mullins is no slouch, but it’s not nearly as obvious as the Giovinco-Altidore duo. Expect this to be an occasional thing to run out for rotation purposes more than anything else, but it’s definitely nice to have in the back pocket.
The more interesting, and likely, tactical tweak is that TFC play a 4-2-3-1. This solves a handful of problems that 2019 TFC struggled with:
Michael Bradley can no longer run.
Liam Fraser is *really* good, and if you don’t play him, that’s a mistake.
Pozuelo isn’t a nine, but he also isn’t quite a part of a healthy balanced ̶b̶r̶e̶a̶k̶f̶a̶s̶t̶ midfield.
Playing a 4-2-3-1 allows Toronto FC to accomplish a few things, especially early doors. With Bradley out injured, it lets you give Liam Fraser the keys without totally leaving him adrift in midfield. Putting him next to perennially-hated-for-no-reason-while-actually-being-amazing Marky Delgado gives you a really solid base, and with his progressive passing he can find Pozuelo, Jozy, and Piatti between lines, with Gallardo threatening in behind.
When Bradley comes back, it lets you play both Bradley and (insert player who can run here) together, covering up a lot of the problems he has these days. Want to pass teams to death? Bradley and Fraser. Want to be extremely defensively secure? Marky at the 10. Want to crush a midfield? Bradley, Fraser, Pozuelo wide left, Osorio 10, Delgado wide right. It gives you the basis to push the fullbacks in the way Vanney wants, without expecting Michael Bradley to be 24 and sweep up messes how he used to.
The 4-2-3-1 also gives you a stronger base from which to press from. Much has been made about TFC’s ability to dominate possession without having a real cohesive press, which has relied a lot on inviting balls into depth for Mavinga to sweep up and rebuild, being conservative in transition, and extremely possession-talented fullbacks. Having a proper base in midfield gives you a few options in establishing any sort of trap higher up the pitch. Don’t be surprised if the 4-2-3-1 becomes a flat 4-4-2 with Pozuelo man marking the defensive midfielder, with the wingers trapping at the fullback.
Hear from head coach Greg Vanney after a 4-0 win in our preseason opener vs. @ColoradoRapids
— Toronto FC (@TorontoFC) February 9, 2020
You’re gonna wanna stick around for the @jacobshaff2 screamer 🚀😱 pic.twitter.com/qS2bpGlnUL
Judging by closed-door friendlies, since that’s the true measure of success, it looks like this is how TFC lined up in their first match against Colorado, a resounding 4-0 thumping. Prove me right GV. Given MLS’ propensity to geo-block things, it’s not clear whether this continued against LAFC, but against the Galaxy Fraser was much more isolated with Endoh and Pozuelo floating around and inside.
2020 Season Expectations
¯\_(ツ)_/¯. TFC are TFC. As far as ceilings go, this team could click with no drama, everyone stays healthy, 4-2-3-1 is a hit and it’s 2017 again with Pozuelo dunkin’ on fools and they walk to the Supporters Shield.
With everyone healthy last year, TFC were a solid quarter of an expected goal better than their opponents, compared to being about even without 1 of Pozuelo, Bradley, or Altidore. If everyone can stay healthy, it’s plausible to look at this team as a contender for winning the East, but probably not catching LAFC overall unless things really click (and the state of California secedes from the Union). But TFC are one of the highest variance teams around and with a fit Jozuelo in full-flight it’s not ridiculous to wonder if a hot streak can carry them further.
Seemingly equally likely is a training camp brawl, Bradley rushing back from injury and playing hobbled, as TFC finish 9th after having -6 points in July and Pablo Piatti plays 417 minutes. This team has been marred by squad conflict and injury the past two seasons and if TFC will be without Altidore or Pozuelo for an extended period of time, it’s hard to see how they make it work.
You never really know with TFC, and that’s why we love them.