Hello Austin fans, it is I, your favourite team hater. Author of tweets such as “SCOREBOARD”, and “Dread it, run from it, the xG arrives all the same”. You remember me. I hope you’re all well. I’m here today to talk about your beloved Austin FC and their 2023 hopes, shall we?
Read MoreWell, that’s it folks. The 2022 regular season is a wrap, many fought for the well traveled Supporters Shield, many failed. Now, the teams chase the real-and-totally-not-dictated-by-the-randomness-of-single-or-two-leg-elimination-series MLS Cup. As such, let’s take a look at why every team has a shot, or doesn’t.
Read MoreAt the theoretical height of her powers, Janine Beckie, former 8th-overall pick in the NWSL draft, is back Stateside with a point to prove. With her contract with Manchester City ending at the end of this year, Beckie made the move to join the very Maple Leaf-centric Portland Thorns, a move no doubt aided by the obvious Canadian throughlines of Rhian Wilkinson, Karina LeBlanc, and her strike partner-in-crime Christine Sinclair. I’ll save the Thorns tactical breakdown for our preseason previews post Challenge Cup (keep your eyes peeled), but who exactly are the Thorns getting?
Read MoreHeading into Toronto on a snowy December day in past years may have had visitors buzzing about the state of BMO Field’s snowy pitch in preparation for an MLS Cup final. For now, there is just roster talk. Roster talk, and manager talk. Enter Bradley. Not the old Bradley we’ve come to know and love, but the even older Bradley who is new to us.
Read MoreWay back in May, American Soccer Analysis broke out our fancy new model, Goals Added, as a way to help us evaluate what is actually going on during the innards of a possession that drives chance creation. As John Muller so aptly put it, “Thanks to expected goals, we’ve gotten good at valuing shots, but shots won’t tell you much about the ninety-plus-minute scramble that produces just 26 total chances over the course of your average MLS game and maybe three goals if you’re lucky. Shots make up about three seconds of action for every four minutes of soccer. Grading the sport on that alone is like assigning GPA based on how well students walk across the graduation stage.” Goals Added gave us the chance to see how much the water carriers and the ball winners and the zone movers actually impact things, beyond just looking at your fancy DP strikers.
Read MoreWe are now well and truly back with the return of English football and to everyone’s shock and horror, Christian Pulisic is still really good! Since the return of the EPL hee bagged the equalizer against Aston Villa with a hard back post run and a more-difficult-than-it-looked half volley into the roof of the goal, then scored one of the most hilariously pacey solo goals I’ve ever seen to open the scoring against Manchester City. Soon after, without scoring, he lifted Chelsea out of one of the worst halves of their season against Leicester with dynamic pressing and outrageously direct transition dribbling. He followed up those performances with assists against West Ham, Watford and Norwich, and a really impressive weak footed finish against Crystal Palace. Like I said, he’s really good.
Read MoreSince data analytics tools first began to be applied to soccer, the field has moved in waves. In the beginning, there was a focus on goals. Then attention shifted to look at other things we can count, like shots, passes, tackles, and all the other events we know and love. Eventually, there was a coalescing around possession percentages, pass completion, and other second-order statistics. From there, everyone went all-in on shots. Shots give us goals, and goals are so rare that it’s difficult enough to learn much from them alone, that looking at shots makes sense.
Read MoreI will start this with a disclaimer: this is not how Borussia Dortmund or Manchester United incorporate analytics into their coaching workflow, it’s not even how the Colorado Rapids incorporate data into their coaching. It is a look at the opposite side of the same coin Carl Carpenter examined earlier this week, only for a smaller school without access to the biggest and baddest equipment.
Read MoreLet’s get this out of the way before we start: Beckham Beckham Beckham Beckham Beckham, Beckham Beckham Beckham; Beckham.
Now, every expansion team that enters MLS is forced into one of two buckets. The Minnesota, FC Cincinnati, Orlando bucket, overpaying for domestic talent and throwing your allocation money around like James Harden on the second night of a back to back with the Heat, or the Atlanta, LAFC, NYCFC bucket, spending huge on designated players, grabbing smart domestic pieces in low budget positions. In the annals of MLS history, one has been much more successful than the other. Inter Miami have decidedly settled on the second bucket.
Read MoreFor the first time in what feels like a long time, Toronto FC have had a smooth off-season.
Well, other than that their club captain will miss 4 months due to ankle surgery that took the club 3 months to decide to have. Oh, and after Jozy Altidore has spent so much time injured he’s become a medical expert himself, and criticized the club’s handling of said ankle surgery. ( And also after the club opened up a DP slot and signed an almost 31 year old winger with 3 goals in his past 50 appearances, who has just come off a cruciate ligament tear.
However, TFC have kept most of their roster intact, with 90% of their minutes played from last season coming back (and the vast majority of their goals). Their whole front office and coaching staff remains in place, after losing a GM and longtime assistant manager last season. They actually have a platform to build on, instead of a sinking ship of scrambling pieces Greg Vanney has to make work in 15 minutes of preseason because they have to fly to Costa Rica to play Saprissa in the first round of CCL on what feels like the day after MLS Cup.
Somehow, this is smooth.
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