2020 Season Preview: Inter Miami
/By Kieran Doyle-Davis (@kierdoyle)
Let’s get this out of the way before we start: Beckham Beckham Beckham Beckham Beckham, Beckham Beckham Beckham; Beckham.
Now, every expansion team that enters MLS is forced into one of two buckets. The Minnesota, FC Cincinnati, Orlando bucket, overpaying for domestic talent and throwing your allocation money around like James Harden on the second night of a back to back with the Heat, or the Atlanta, LAFC, NYCFC bucket, spending huge on designated players, grabbing smart domestic pieces in low budget positions. In the annals of MLS history, one has been much more successful than the other. Inter Miami have decidedly settled on the second bucket.
Building A Roster From Scratch
In terms of building a roster, it’s hard not to see a lot of promise in Inter Miami. Paul McDonough has assembled a squad with a mix of MLS experience in key, stalwart positions, with some high risk high reward young talent around the pitch. Add in legitimate stars across the attacking band, and you’re cooking with gas.
| Shots | AveDist | Header% | Saves | GA | xGA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 142 | 19.3 | 9.2% | 103 | 39 | 48.3 | -9.3 | |
| 160 | 19.7 | 11.3% | 110 | 50 | 49.2 | 0.8 | |
| 128 | 18.2 | 15.6% | 86 | 42 | 38.6 | 3.4 | |
| 142 | 18.9 | 14.8% | 99 | 43 | 43.9 | -0.9 | |
| 146 | 18.6 | 14.4% | 100 | 46 | 50.4 | -4.4 | |
| 113 | 17.9 | 18.6% | 84 | 29 | 34.4 | -5.4 | |
| 136 | 17.7 | 16.2% | 88 | 48 | 45.9 | 2.1 |
Goalkeeper
MLS veteran Luis Robles is the de facto starter for Miami this year, with capable backup play from John McCarthy, who previously spent time with the Union. They also traded for the Homegrown Player rights to Drake Callender from San Jose, for a 2nd round Superdraft Pick and potentially $150,000 in GAM for unnamed incentives.
Robles has been a pretty high variance guy in terms of his expected goals performance over the years, and he didn’t have a great year last year conceding ~2 goals more than expected. Similarly concerning, he was on a big wage packet and is already 35 years old. Yes, goalkeepers have wildly different age curves to outfield players, and he was pretty great for NYRB the two years preceding last season, but definitely not the trending you want for someone who’s eating up $480,000 of your wage bill. If I’m being optimistic, Robles has been a key culture guy at NYRB during an extremely successful period. At worst, he’s a solid locker room presence and helps build a culture at a club that really doesn’t have one yet.
At The Back
At right back, it looks like Dylan Nealis is probably going to be the guy after being taken 3rd overall, but Alvas Powell had been a solid MLS contributor for Portland before a worrisome stint at FCC last season. Then again everyone was worrisome at FCC last season, so we’ll give him a pass. AJ DeLaGarza and Denso Ulysse round out the right back depth. Nealis is an interesting piece, he won Big East Defensive Player of the Year in 2018, was a MAC Hermann trophy finalist and captain of the national championship winning Georgetown Hoyas. He logged pretty solid scoring and assist numbers from right back, and was genuinely fun to watch during the College Cup. It’s no secret that the overall talent level of the SuperDraft isn’t what it once was, but there are definitely player profiles you can pick up, and fullback is one of them. Julian Gressel, Richie Laryea, Matt Polster, Keegan Rosenberry (another Georgetown right back), are all former SuperDraft picks, and right back might be the deepest position in the draft. If Nealis can make a big impact, it makes spending elsewhere a lot easier.
On the other side of the pitch, Ben Sweat and Mikey Ambrose form a solid duo to go through a whole season of left back minutes. Sweat has been quietly serviceable for NYCFC as another solid domestic fullback, at least in an attacking sense. He was less impressive in the 3-4-3 Dome Torrent sometimes broke out, but as a traditional left back he’s not going to cost you games. In terms of fullback pairings, it seems... Brave? To play pretty much any combination of these fullbacks to me, and none of them are really lock down defenders. Sweat and Powell come in at -0.5 and -0.13 points above replacement respectively, while DeLaGarza and Ambrose come in at -0.91 and +0.1. I think having four replacement level fullbacks to rotate the hot hand through is probably a fine strategy to take.
At center back, Miami scooped up Roman Torres from Seattle as their veteran MLS presence (I’m sensing a trend), with Nicolas Figal joining from Independiente. The lazy comparison is Leandro Gonzalez-Pirez, and from a viewing of his “Nicolas Figal | Welcome to Miami | 2020 HD” Youtube highlights, I kind of see it. A strong opener in possession, ultra rangey both stepping out of the back and covering in behind, and a ridiculous penalty given away. If he has the same impact LGP had for Atlanta as a defender of the year candidate, it gives Miami a real platform to build from. Grant Lillard, who is still only 24, provides depth along with Andres Reyes, a Colombian youth international, who is on loan from Atletico Nacional. The real exciting question mark is Christian Makoun. Makoun is a really weird case where he left Zamora for Juventus’ youth sides on loan, without them making the deal permanent. I admittedly haven’t seen him play any senior football, but he looked really smooth in the time he got in the UEFA Youth League. It’s hard to translate that to senior football, especially across continents, but keep an eye out for his development throughout the season.
Midfield
It sounds boring to say, but Miami’s midfield is going to be pretty good. While Wil Trapp probably isn’t the future of Berhalter ball for the USMNT, he is a very capable ball progressor for any team looking to push their fullbacks on and control possession. Similarly, Victor Ulloa isn’t a star by any means, but as someone to sit next to (or slightly in front of) Trapp, he’s fine to eat 2000 minutes a season. My guess is that Lee Nguyen will reach his final form of Bob Bradley’s “A six isn’t really a six”, and will probably see a lot of time as one of the deeper midfielders. In terms of depth, they’re pretty thin on the defensive side of midfield. David Norman Jr. spent last season at Pacific FC in the CPL on loan and looked not capable of playing defensive midfield at the next level for a good team. Makoun has played as a six a fair bit, and probably looked more comfortable there than at center back in the UYL.
Ahead of what will probably look like a lopsided pivot is the real fun. Rodolfo Pizarro just seems to fit with this team. He was pretty central to a lot of what Diego Alonso did at Monterrey, has already opened his account in Miami with a preseason goal, and should be good to go come opening day. His actual production has never been that high, but as a presser out of the 10 he shows up pretty well, and will help knit things together between Trapp and their attacking band. $12 million is a lot to pay for a peak aged 10 who doesn’t score very often, but if he’s Alonso’s guy, it’s hard to say no. Behind him, you have the aforementioned Nguyen, as well as Jay Chapman and George Acosta. Chapman showed glimpses of becoming something in Toronto, but they became fewer and further between with time. A change of scenery might help, but at one point he was a multiple shot-multiple shot assist off the bench guy. If he can find that form again, it gives Miami a few different looks they can roll with.
Attackers
Matias Pellegrini is fine, he has interesting scoring and assist numbers for a lot of substitute minutes at Estudiantes, dribbles a bit, shoots a bit, assists a bit. His video looks fine, stretches teams, aggressive 1v1, strikes the ball well. But for $9 million, I was kind of hoping for more than three shots taken or created per game? And he shoots from distance, a lot. Now, Estudiantes were exceptionally defensive (and just not very good) last year, and Argentine Superliga xG data is sparse, so maybe he takes really great shots, but given he’s at about four goals for 35 shots in the past two years, it seems unlikely. He has historically played on the left, but given Miami’s acquisition of Lewis Morgan from Celtic, who has also played on the left, my best guess is Pellegrini shifts right and looks to come inside on his left foot more. Morgan’s career numbers coming inside from the left are actually pretty reasonable, but most of his output in terms of goals and assists came in the Scottish Championship or in League One. At Celtic, he’s a 0.4 G+A p96 guy, which is fine, I guess. Probably like more for what is a significant part of your attack. Luis Argudo is the only natural wide player depth option, but you could see Pizarro or Chapman slide wider to fill in some minutes there, as well as one or two of the striker core.
Up top, Julian Carranza is the hypothetical number one, but he’s out injured for the next little while. Even then, I don’t really see the numbers of a $6 million striker to lead your line. He’s a comfortable finisher with both feet, runs the channels well, but he’s only a career three shots taken or created guy. Now, like Pellegrini, Banfield are not very good, so maybe he’s been a really high value attacker for a bad team and when Miami have more of the ball he’ll look a lot better. This feels like one that makes sense under the proposed new U-22 transfer rule, but if that fee is part of his cap hit, yikes. For now, former USMNT hopeful Jerome Kiesewetter, SuperDraft first overall pick Robbie Robinson, and perennial “He’s how old?” Juan Agudelo will fill the spot until Carranza is fit. Kiesewetter had an okay return with El Paso in USL Championship last year with 12 goals in 28 games, and could be the starter come LAFC, but I think it’s a little more likely Robinson earns the job to start. Agudelo is a weird fit where, like everyone else, I think in the right situation he can certainly offer more than he has in years past for the Revs, but I don’t really see him as anything more than attacking depth here. There have been really significant rumblings for Roger Martinez for somewhere in the region of $15 million, but why you would want another peak aged striker who doesn’t score enough goals I do not know.
2020 Expectations
For 2020 Miami look… fine. Diego Alonso is a very good coach, his Rayados teams were imperious in Liga MX and CCL, and provided he can find a way to implement the things he wants to do while learning the intricacies of playing in a blizzard in Denver, he’ll probably be a strength for them.
I think Miami has a really solid base to build an attack from, Roman Torres and Luis Robles are past their best but can still contribute with some younger talent around them. Wil Trapp and Pizarro ensure a mostly functioning midfield, with Lee Nguyen and Victor Ulloa carrying a lot of the weight on how much upside it has. The attack is still a rather large, but promisingly shaped, question mark. There is still the question of the third DP, with heavy links to Agustin Almendra from Boca, who could really crank their midfield up to 11, and give them more bodies in the attacking band.
I don’t expect a world where Inter Miami are bad, but if they get hit by the injury bug at all across the front line, there’s definitely a situation where they don’t make the playoffs. If you miss on two of Carranza, Pellegrini, and Morgan, it is really hard to see how this team scores enough goals to be competitive relying on Robinson or Kiesewetter. Which, given the investment purely in transfer fees, would be a disaster.
However, Carranza and Pellegrini put up fine but not awesome numbers in the Argentine Superliga… at 19. If they can continue to grow and develop, maybe you see a high flying functioning attack. Pizarro keeps them ticking over, Trapp does boring but effective Wil Trapp things, Robles rolls back the years, and Miami are playing for a home playoff game. I think the gap is too large to see them push Atlanta, NYCFC, and Philadelphia, but they might be closer than we think.
Their jerseys are trash, but if worse comes to worst, they’ve still got the coolest crest and color scheme in the league.