The Columbus Crew had a disappointing season in 2019, finishing 3rd to last in the East. Unlike the stability of last season, the roster is showing more turnover than the club has seen in many years. While most positions have starters already in place, the Crew lack depth in most positional groups.
Here’s how the Crew’s roster stands with a projected depth chart in the Crew’s traditional 4-2-3-1 formation…
Read MoreAfter probably the toughest season in Crew history, everything’s coming up Massive for the Crew. An absentee, out-of-town investor/operator has been replaced by a committed local group led by the Crew’s long-time team physician Dr. Pete Edwards. A new stadium in the heart of downtown is in the works, Tim Bezbatchenko has returned home to Columbus as President, and Caleb Porter returned to Ohio to win an MLS Cup for Columbus. With the Crew returning 96% of minutes played in 2018, look for an evolution rather than a revolution on the field from Caleb Porter’s men.
Read MoreWelcome to Setting the Table. Each week we take some time to focus on the best chance creators in MLS from the last weekend. If you want to see the best chances that were wasted check out Lowered Expectations. Here we focus on chances that ended with the ball in the back of the net.
#5 Maxi Urruti to Santiago Mosquera, FC Dallas, 41:25, 0.427 expected goals
Passes in sequence: 1
It was a tumultuous season for Crew SC in 2017, as a quality and entertaining product on the field was overshadowed by confirmation that the team is considering a move to Austin. With arguably their two best players gone, it's going to be a challenge for Columbus to replicate last season's on-field success.
The Columbus Crew ended 2017 with a lot of promise and uncertainty. On the field, the Crew made a great postseason run and came within a goal of making it to the MLS Cup Final, losing out to eventual winners Toronto FC. Off the field, there was the controversial announcement that ownership is interested in relocating the team.
Read MoreIn case you missed the drama last week and are wondering why Kei Kamara was out on the pitch this weekend for New England, Columbus traded their sometimes enigmatic and always entertaining forward to the Revolution for a ransom of MLS financials, a couple draft picks, and an international roster spot.
Regardless of why, Kamara is now gone from Columbus. The question now shifts to what becomes of the Crew and their immediate future. Kamara in his last post game appearance made a few awkward and pointed remarks. “I haven’t really had to depend on Pipa at all,” Kamara said. “How long have I been here? How many goals have I scored? How many have come from his assists? One, maybe two. I don’t depend on him. I depend on Ethan, I depend on my outside backs to pass me balls.”
This is partially true in terms of actual goal production, but it´s not the entire story. While Justin Meram, Ethan Finlay, Harrison Afful and Waylon Francis all accrued their share of assists last year, Kamara's chances have come primarily through a cross-happy approach. Utilizing the Sierra Leone native's elite skills at winning aerial duels in the attacking box, Kamara led MLS with the most aerial duels won (155) with an insane 56% success rate.
Pipa has been credited with only four assists (one being a secondary assist which we don't count in our records) on goals scored by Kamara. But he hasn't exactly been dormant during the Kei era either.
More on the Pipa to Kamara connection after the jump.
Read MoreThe Crew played for the MLS Cup on their home soil last year only to fall short to the Portland Timbers, and while deep playoff runs always go hand in hand with a bit of good fortune, Columbus fans have every reason to believe their team will challenge again for this year’s title. Every player who started in the MLS Cup Final returned to the team and they added players, primarily on defense, where they needed help. Despite the stability the Crew will need great performances in three key areas to maintain their status as Kings of the East.
The Kamara Crew
The Columbus Crew’s biggest signing this offseason was locking down the return of the King of Scorers Kei Kamara to a long term deal. Kamara’s 22 goals last season was tied for the league lead and his physical presence up top sets the tone for the rest of the team. His long public and ultimately successful negotiation this offseason was proof that top players do have leverage and ability to loosen the very tight purse strings of the MLS single-entity system. The Crew will need another top flight performance from Kamara to keep their edge.
The biggest offensive signing of the offseason was fellow Sierra Leonean and Norwegian National Ola Kamara. Owner of 28 goals in his last three seasons in Norway and Austria, Kamara adds depth both up top and on the wings.
The Kings of the Cross after the jump.
Read MoreThere are a multitude of tactical questions facing each remaining team in the MLS Cup Playoffs. Can New York's retooled wing-backs be relied on to defend capably? Can the Crew maintain a consistent attack with Federico Higuain's inconsistent performances? Can anything be done to stop Dallas' attack through Mauro Diaz and Fabian Castillo? And how will suspensions affect Portland's midfield? I'll examine each of these questions and provide a tactical preview of of the Conference Finals below.
Read More*xG = expected goals, xA = expected assists, xGD = expected goal differential. For more information see our xGoals by Team page.
By Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)
I'm not sure you all remember, but last off-season about this time I talked up Columbus. I liked Federico Higuaín a lot more than was healthy (I've since sought help—only to run away) and low and behold I stumbled across a pretty good (read as: lucky) prediction.
This year we all know about Will Trapp, Higuaín is still Higuaín, Steve Clarke may be a top-three keeper in MLS and they've got perhaps one of the most underrated defenses of MLS. Oh, and they added a bunch of pieces too.
The Coach
Gregg Berhalter is back in 2015 and contrary to last season, people aren't questioning his peculiar methods and tactics. Last year he pushed his full back hard into attacking areas, focused on wing play, and did it all by possession based soccer through the middle and allowing a 20-year old to pick out passes to his attackers down field. The result saw much of his team grow from potential into a systematic and fundamental line-up that flourished immensely under that tutelage.
His ability to not just find 'MLS guys' and fit them into his system, but to plug and play the lineup when needed and to even lose guys like Alavaro Rey, and Giancarlo Gonzalez along the way shows his ability not just as a manager, but also as someone that has a keen insight into his players.
Berhalter, in just 15 short months, has taken a club that looked to be on a very sharp declining trajectory after the 2013 season and injected them with new life that saw them take third in the East in 2014 and reached the playoffs after two seasons of missing out. For now, forget about what happened in the playoffs and the dismantling they took at the hands of Lee Nguyen and company. This is a coach that showed his team should be taken seriously in 2015.
The Goalkeeper
Steve Clark was always someone that sat on the periphery of American Soccer, succeeding over in Norway with Hønefoss BK, a team he help get promoted to the Tippeligaen and then watched be relegated the year he left. While he was a returning US international, he was a quiet returner and there were some, such as myself, that may have questioned whether Andy Gruenebaum's exodus was fair. That being said, Clark had an outstanding year being credited with saving nearly six goals more than should have been expected.
Clark's advanced numbers such as available 90, reach 90 and height 90 all closely mimic that of the season Bill Hamid had, but with more shots on goal. Much like how Hamid's accomplishments were questionably attributed to the DC United Defense, much of Clark's performances are heaped upon the Crew's defense—though with much more validity. Columbus posted both below average shots against and shots on goal per match. Additionally, his Dist10, which is The 10th percentile distance to goal (in yards) for shots faced, was in the bottom-three among starting keepers.
An easy way of saying this is that Clark had a good year and was further helped by having a good defense. It's extremely difficult to say what this 2015 season has in store for him, but as of right now I'd put him as a candidate for Keeper of the Year.
The Defense
The defense was good in 2014, and it's possible it got even better in the offseason. While he has been great for them, the Crew may have the chance to upgrade Tyson Wahl at centerback. It's not that Austrian Emanuel Pogatetz wasn't around at the end of last season (remember how well Berhalter did at actually providing leadership rather than simply managing) so much as it was just not the best timing to shake up the starting lineup with Wahl performing well.
This offseason, “Pog” aka Mad Dog didn't leave Columbus but stayed and trained and focused on being a member of Crew SC, which is an incredibly encouraging sign of someone that not only wants to be at the club but wants to do well.
Pogatetz will likely have the starting job this season with Wahl as depth, and he'll be coupled with Michael Parkhurst. I've never been a huge Parkhurst fan myself, and his sub three duels won p90 along with the rate at which he won headers (45%) raises further questions. But should Clark be able to dominate the aerial challenges when they come, every thing should be fine.
The biggest story to coming out of the offseason for the defense is who starts at fullback. Waylon Francis and Hernan Grana would typically start, but through a series of fortunate events during the MLS SuperDraft they landed Chris Klute, too. All three are capable of starting at fullback, with Klute capable of being played on either side. Just one year ago Klute produced a 3.69 expected assists (xA) from the left full back position. Likewise, Francis posted a 3.18 xA in 2014. It should be a tough decision all the way around.
The Midfielders
I'm not sure what to say about the midfield besides that it's one of the most gifted and deepest in MLS. Toni Tchani, Justin Meram, Ben Speas, Hector Jimenez, Ethan Finlay, Wil Trapp, Romain Gall, Kristinn Steindorsson and, yes, even Kevan George have starting XI potential in this group. While it's pretty simple that Tchani and Trapp will have the middle on lock down, the outside wide-positions are less certain.
Trapp is amazing and I don't think there is anything more that I want to say on the subject of him except I can't wait to see what he does another year older. Tchani is a duel winning machine (5th in total duels won, with 203) and pairs brilliantly with Trapp in the midfield.
Looking outside, Meram will start the season with a suspension and thus probably give way to Steindorsson for at least the first match. Despite all the love that people have given Meram this off-season, it's Finlay that has my attention. His 10 expected goals with change compiled in only 1800 minutes is impressive and I'm very interested in seeing him get more time this season. Beyond a flash of the obvious, Gall (who was loads of fun to watch during the U-20 CONCACAF tournament) along with Speas and George will push their counterparts for playing time.
The Forwards
Anyone that knows me or listens to the podcast is probably pretty familiar with my love of Federico Higuaín. Is he a midfielder? Is he a forward-type? False nine? Who cares? I put him in the forward category and I'm sure someone on Reddit is going to rip me for it. Whatever. My bottom line: Higuaín makes goals happen, pure and simple. Let's just take a moment not to care how we define it.
We have a data set with four years of data, and despite only playing three of those seasons, Higuaín finishes 12th overall in total expected goals created (46.58). Which is bananas. His shot-to-key pass ratio, which gives us a small bit of insight into whether the individual is inclined as a shooter, a balanced creator, or simply a provider, is heavily in favor of him creating shots (0.78). That being said he's still accumulated 25 expected goals scored over 6,000 minutes. Again, this is bananas. These are video game type numbers and it only serves to prove he's easily a top-five player in MLS.
In years past, Higuaín has either worked underneath a striker or teamed with one that takes a volume shot approach to scoring. Basically they take everything that Higuian gives them and try to make something out of it. Guys like Jairo Arrieta and Dominic Oduro have not been to the liking of Berhalter for one reason or another.
I'm not against the idea of quantity over quality as it's not necessarily a terrible approach, considering the base level finishing skills by the average starting striker in MLS. And I'm not convinced either Arrieta or Oduro were terrible experiments. I have long toyed with trying to figure out what happened to Arrieta in Columbus and if he was misused or underused or what. Oduro gets a bad rap, but he contributed 47 goals out of an expected 45 over 9,400 minutes the last four seasons. He's done this with four different teams (now a fifth) while being pushed and pulled between midfield and striker. I'm a fan and I think Montreal got a very good player on the cheap.
Looking to 2015, Berhalter and company look to partner Higuaín with Kei Kamara... we think. Most people seem to continue thinking Kamara can't play striker because he was largely used a wide forward during the past few years. I don't think it matters what he did previously in Columbus because Berhlater has used him up top in the pre-season, and most pundits believe he'll continue to be used in that role. It makes sense.
The scary thing for Crew fans is that Kamara has shown worse shot positioning during his time with Sporting KC than either Arrieta or Oduro, though that's possibly more to do with the position and role he was fulfilling. Looking at our data set (so excluding the likes of Kaka, David Villa, ect), Kamara finished 10th* in expected goals for this season, contributing 15 total goals.
Additionally, I have a strong feeling that one of Aaron Schoenfeld or Adam Bedell will have some big performances. Both are well liked by the minimal data that we have and having a guy like Higuian that can put them in great positions to take shots only amplifies the likelihood of their success. I also feel the need to reference Sagi Lev-Ari, who I know nothing about besides his history playing at California State Northridge and being born in Haifa, Israel. It'll be interesting to watch his young career.
Summary
Last season Columbus was an average attacking team. Largely lead by Higuaín, the emergence of Finlay, and a bit of luck, too. Their expected goals was only 1.39 per game, tied for ninth with New England. The addition of both Kamara and Steindorsson should hopefully bring more offense over the next year and with more time for the club to meld it could all lend to some really positive results.
That being said, the club was led to a third place finish because of their defense and on pure talent weren't the third best team in the Eastern Conference. Their expected goal difference in even game states was actually in the negative, and could indicate that the nice narrative I gave at the beginning of this introduction might be a bit skewed.
The club held 54% possession and turned that into 12% possession in the attacking half. They took the fight to their opponents with a possession in the final third ratio of 1.13, meaning they averaged more control in the attacking in than their opponents did on the opposite end. So who knows. Overrated? Underrated? Maybe just rated?
The Crew have the potential to take the number one seed in the East, and really, they probably could even be a dark horse for the Supporter Shield. But while I'm a huge fan of a lot of the parts and coach Berhalter, I feel that something a bit more down to earth is in store for this season. My guess they regress to the mean on their expected goals and end up fourth in the East.
*I excluded Diego Valeri from this data set for a couple reasons, first because we're not really sure when he'll return this season and second because at this stage I don't project him to play 2500 minutes.
Harrison and Matty discuss their two most recent articles, respectively about Harrison's Shots Created per 90 statistic and Matty's obsessive need to put RSL down because its players are more gooder at soccer than he is. It's a short one, perfect for your commute![mixcloud http://www.mixcloud.com/hkcrow/asa-podcast-xliv-the-one-where-we-talk-about-what-we-write/ width=660 height=180 /]
Greetings one and all as the new season begins in MLS. In case you missed it I published an article on here not to long ago that dives into my Possession with Purpose Indices to include a general introduction on what it is and means as well as some explanations behind the Indices. If you haven't gone through the article before or if you need a refresh click here.
Here's how the teams fared, compared to each other, in Possession with Purpose Week #1:
Observations:
This Index is not influenced by previous season results; it's a new year and a fresh/clean slate for teams to build from as they all challenge each other to make the Playoffs. So all you supporters of teams that didn't do so well this past year - fahgetaboutit!
Next thing to consider is that positive numbers indicate the team performed better in attack and defense than their opponent - in looking at the diagram note that Columbus is at the far left while their opponent is on the far right. As the season unfolds these overall positions should change. As noted Columbus had the best overall attack compared to all other teams this past week; here are their percentages in the six steps of PWP:
Another top performer was Houston - some consider, last year, they were a sleeping giant that simply didn't wake up in time for a solid Playoff run - I do - in their first game this year they burst the flood gates with 4 goals and some solid and superb defense led by a guy I absolutely hated to see leave Portland - David Horst.
Some may gaffaw at this but this time last year - before his injury - I thought David had a superb chance to get a wee bit stuck in (some minutes) on some USMNT training like Michael Harrington did this off-season.
I still think David has great pedigree as a stand-up defender with great timing and good vision to see gaps and create gaps. So if you are a Houston supporter know that I have a special interest in seeing David do great things.
As for reading the diagram - there's a note there to read it from left to right (best to worst). The composite Index is the difference between the team Attacking PWP Index and the team Defending PWP Index. The overall total represents the ratios of success each team had in performing the six basic steps, possession, passing accuracy, penetration, creation, targeting, and scoring a goal. It's not perfect but last year it was very representative.
Before getting to the other PWP Indices...
This is the first week and like most things that are measured, to begin with, there may be wide variation in the first 10 or so samples analyzed - so like last year Chivas began with a good start.
Does that continue or do we see them tail off - likewise - DC United ended the season near bottom in almost every single PWP category - so far they are right where they left off. Will time show that Eddie Johnson was a good purchase - we'll see.
As for the leaders from last year like Real Salt Lake, Sporting KC and Portland. It's no secret now that RSL opened up with a solid three points away to LA Galaxy - is it rude to expect that Robbie Keane will miss another penalty shot this year?
How about that torrential downpour in Portland - rain is not unusual for that part of the country - does it rain a bit more on the Timbers this season or will the sun begin to shine as Fernandez, Valeri, Nagbe, Urutti and others really get there gears engaged with what many feel and think might be the most potent attacking system/scheme/player personnel package in the league?
In considering what Sporting KC has on their plate early in the season, 5 games in the course of 15 days I think - is it too much to expect that they will show early indication of dominance again?
In looking at the PWP Attacking Index here's how those teams rated:
Observations:
It's no secret that goals scored will heavily influence the outcome of a game - that's to be expected - so those teams that scored a brace or more of goals this early in the season will rate higher than some that didn't score as many goals.
Another new feature this year will be a PWP Attacking and Defending Player of the Week - where some key individual statistics are highlighted that helped influence overall team performance.
For this past week the PWP Attacking Player of the Week is Federico Higuain.
In looking at the PWP Defending Index here's how the teams fared:
Observations:
Since this is the first week the top defending team also happens to be the top attacking team.
For each specific week (not cummulative) this will be the case - for me there is nothing wrong with that - it takes a solid defense to win games as well.
At the end of the season there might be a pattern on who's the top performer, week to week, that is influencing the outcomes of team performances better than others; we'll see.
For this past week the PWP Defending Player of the Week is Michael Parkhurst.
In closing...
As the season progresses (right around week 15 or so) I'd offer that the PWP Strategic Composite Index should help paint a picture/expectation on what teams are working towards making the Playoffs and what teams are the doormats.
By week 17 last year this Index had accurately predicted 8 of the top 10 teams to make the Playoffs and by seasons end this Index had offered up 9 of the top 10 teams to make the MLS Playoffs; exceeding, in accuracy/prediction both the Squawka.com and Whoscored.com Indices - hopefully that level of predictability shows up again this year.
A couple of housekeeping things - my first and foremost source for data remains, like last year, the MLS Chalkboard developed and provided by Opta. Second - as the year continues I will attempt to peel back some more detail on 'defending' by teams in the final third.
Not sure how that will go but know that in a few weeks time I should be able to offer some additional team defending performance indicators for all MLS teams...
All the best, Chris
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