MLS Week 8: Top 50 Shots

Okay, shots. We talk a lot about shots because, well, shots lead to goals. Obviously you can't have a goal without first attempting a shot. I know that was a deep thought, but just go with me here. We put a lot of emphasis on shots here and have dug into their expectation leading to goals. It's backed by the belief that shots are important statistics in correlation to team success. Now there are plenty of caveats to shots and we use them to influence our ideas of what is good or bad. Matthias has taken time to explain at least some of them.

So with all that said you can't read too much into all of these numbers. Take for instance the fact that Frederico Higuian creates 7.03 shots per 90 minutes. That's nearly a shot and a quarter more than Brad Davis at 5.79. Is Higuian a better shot creator because he creates one additional shot over the course of a single match? If that shot is from zone 4 or even 5, the value of that single shot becomes marginalized in that specific instance.

Despite all of those various acknowledgements of how this is marginally interesting, and yet mostly a useless exercise, I put together a follow-up of last week's top 50 individual shots creators in Major League Soccer. I decided it was best to cut up this data and present it via a tiered system to make it a bit more palatable and to highlight the players that have set themselves apart from their peers. Also, this allows me to be a bit creative in the tier process.

IBC Root Beer Tier - "The Best of the Best."

	Player	Club	POS	MINS	G	A	SHTS	Key Passes	Sh-C	Sh-C p90
1	Marco Di Vaio	MTL	F	326	1	1	24	4	29	8.01
2	Clint Dempsey	SEA	M	393	6	3	23	7	33	7.56
3	Federico Higuain	CLB	F	538	4	2	20	20	42	7.03
4	Robbie Keane	LA	F	450	4	1	22	12	35	7.00
5	Pedro Morales	VAN	M	472	1	2	19	15	36	6.86
6	Thierry Henry	NY	F	449	2	0	23	9	32	6.41

Oh, yeah... Marco Di Viao. He's also pretty good at this whole soccer thing. I guess we can all say that we could have guessed every singl--what the hell is Pedro Morales doing in there??? I guess that probably explains a lot about what's been happening in Vancouver. He's second overall in total Shots Created and he could very well be a shoo-in for MLS Newcomer of the Year.  He's like the offensive equivalent of what Jose Goncalves was last year to New England. I only have one question: who is this Camilo guy everyone was talking about?

Stewart's Root Beer Tier - "You don't have IBC? Who doesn't have IBC?"

	Player	Club	POS	MINS	G	A	SHTS	Key Passes	Sh-C	Sh-C p90
7	Landon Donovan	LA	M-F	450	0	2	13	14	29	5.80
8	Brad Davis	HOU	M	311	0	2	3	15	20	5.79
9	Graham Zusi	KC	F-M	450	1	3	9	16	28	5.60
10	Diego Valeri	POR	M	579	1	0	19	16	35	5.44
11	Dom Dwyer	KC	F	427	4	0	22	3	25	5.27
12	Leo Fernandes	PHI	F	436	2	1	13	11	25	5.16
13	Lloyd Sam	NY	M	621	1	3	12	20	35	5.07
14	Mike Magee	CHI	F	450	1	2	15	8	25	5.00
15	Giles Barnes	HOU	M	527	0	1	22	6	29	4.95
16	Justin Mapp	MTL	M	585	0	3	11	18	32	4.92
17	Michael Bradley	TOR	M	433	1	0	6	17	23	4.78
18	Mauro Diaz	DAL	M	604	2	3	13	16	32	4.77
19	Quincy Amarikwa	CHI	F	548	4	1	16	12	29	4.76
20	Felipe Martins	MTL	M	626	1	2	18	13	33	4.74
21	Gilberto	TOR	F	423	0	0	13	9	22	4.68
22	Cristian Maidana	PHI	M	425	0	2	11	9	22	4.66
23	Deshorn Brown	COL	F	448	1	0	19	4	23	4.62
24	Chris Wondolowski	SJ	F-M	450	3	0	20	3	23	4.60
25	Fabian Espindola	DC	F	531	2	2	11	14	27	4.58
26	Michel	DAL	M-D	401	3	2	11	7	20	4.49
27	Lamar Neagle	SEA	F	506	2	2	16	6	24	4.27
28	Obafemi Martins	SEA	F	620	2	4	13	12	29	4.21
29	Erick Torres	CHV	F	603	6	0	22	6	28	4.18
30	Javier Morales	RSL	M	527	0	2	7	15	24	4.10

Justin Mapp has the same amount of total Shots Created as Mauro Diaz in almost 20 minutes less field time. Try thinking about that next time you're frustrated by Mapp's hair line. Try.

Dom Dwyer does not go away. This guy could be someone that we may need to start legitimately talking about in the coming weeks. You should probably add Leo Fernandez and Lloyd Sam to that obnoxious hype list too.

Speaking of Sam, I added him to my MLS Fantasy Roster for tonight, hedging the bet that he finally scores a goal. At last look, the guy currently holds the highest xGoal predictor score without actually scoring a goal. If there was ever a guy that was "due" to score a goal, it's him and I'm virtually betting on it happening.

On the note of not scoring goals, "Hi, Landon Donovan". Who, in case you didn't notice, is still a good player even when not putting the ball in the back of the net. Because, you know, skillz.

Barqs Root Beer Tier - "Old Reliable"

	Player	Club	POS	MINS	G	A	SHTS	Key Passes	Sh-C	Sh-C p90
31	Dwayne De Rosario	TOR	M	254	0	0	10	1	11	3.90
32	Mauro Rosales	CHV	M	626	0	3	10	14	27	3.88
33	Kenny Miller	VAN	F	537	3	1	14	8	23	3.85
34	Bradley Wright-Phillips	NY	F	358	1	0	12	3	15	3.77
35	Darren Mattocks	VAN	F	580	2	3	13	8	24	3.72
36	Jack McInerney	MTL	F	436	2	1	13	4	18	3.72
37	Will Bruin	HOU	F	539	3	1	14	7	22	3.67
38	Baggio Husidic	LA	M	344	1	1	7	6	14	3.66
39	Bernardo Anor	CLB	M	497	2	0	16	4	20	3.62
40	Hector Jimenez	CLB	M	523	1	2	9	10	21	3.61
41	Teal Bunbury	NE	F	630	0	1	14	10	25	3.57
42	Diego Fagundez	NE	M-F	584	0	0	19	4	23	3.54
43	Sal Zizzo	KC	F	433	0	2	10	5	17	3.53
44	Kenny Cooper	SEA	F	358	2	1	12	1	14	3.52
45	Benny Feilhaber	KC	M	539	1	1	8	12	21	3.51
46	Juninho	LA	M	448	0	2	8	7	17	3.42
47	Andrew Wenger	PHI	F	528	2	0	14	6	20	3.41
48	Eric Alexander	NY	M	451	0	3	7	7	17	3.39
49	Alex	CHI	M	512	0	0	12	7	19	3.34
50	Saer Sene	NE	M	355	0	0	8	5	13	3.30

There are roughly 19 names here and I'm not going to go through them all. But key surprises are Jack McInerney, who everyone continues to think is "slumping" when he's not scoring goals. Baggio Husidic is making waves in that flashy new diamond attack in LA. Husidic is filling the hole that once upon a time existed out wide and makes the Robbie Rogers-trade look worse and worse, as he likely won't make it past a bench position upon return. Bernardo Anor has been doing a lot for Columbus out of the midfield but, perhaps, the bigger story than Anor--or even the LA trade for Rogers--is that fact that Gregg Berhalter pretty much stole Hector Jimenez who is looking brilliant in his new Crew colors.

Lastly, three other off season moves are having impacts with their new clubs.

1. Teal Bunbury is finally being "the other guy" and taking shots in New England. Lord knows they need to start converting those opportunities.
2. Sal Zizzo wasn't exactly a headline move this off-season, but since being let go by Portland this past off-season he's been a gold staple in the Sporting KC line-up.
3. Kenny Cooper is having himself a quietly productive first season in the Emerald City. Yes, it's towards the bottom of the line-up and it doesn't really mean much of anything. But he's been reliable and fits in with Clint Dempsey and Oba Martins, playing the third/fourth fiddle and doing whatever needs to happen. Great role for him and he's doing it well.

There are a lot of things to take away from this. Like why didn't I just make two tiers: IBC Rootbeer and Barqs, which is basically all you're going to go with unless there is some local brewed Root beer that you want to try for funsies. Anyways, some information here. Not necessarily good information, but at this stage of analysis and data when it comes to MLS, and really soccer in general, what is "good" information?

MLS Top 50: Total Shots Created

I've briefly mentioned the stat Total Shots Created before. Basically it's how frequently a player contributes to the moment leading to an attempt on goal. It's one that I like a lot in terms of crediting individual players for their single contributions to the team's efforts. Obviously there are other elements to a match that are also important and lead to definitive events that have predictive value (i.e. other things that players can do to help a team win). However, shots are one of the more valuable numbers out there and available. There is also the little fact that everyone loves goals. Goals are awesome and invoke celebrations. Shot deflections, all out blocked shots, or midfield recoveries hardly elicit the same reaction from friends but arguably hold near as much individual performance weight/value to the team. With all the emphasis on shots and individual production there is another number worth mentioning: %Tsh (Percentage of Team Shots). It's a pretty percentage of how many of the total team shots a player was involved in creating, not just shooting himself.

This time around, the list is compiled of the top 50 players in shot creation based upon the shots they've taken, assists that they've been attributed, or other shots they've created by their passing ability. Players below have been sorted by their %Tsh.

Player	Club	POS	GP	GS	MINS	G	A	SHTS	KP	SH-C	ShC-90	Total Team Shots	%Tsh
Federico Higuain	CLB	F	5	5	448	4	2	18	17	37	7.43	71	52.11%
Pedro Morales	VAN	M	6	4	407	1	2	14	14	30	6.63	67	44.78%
Fabian Espindola	DC	F	5	5	441	1	2	9	13	24	4.90	55	43.64%
Mauro Diaz	DAL	M	6	6	515	2	3	10	14	27	4.72	62	43.55%
Robbie Keane	LA	F	4	4	360	3	1	17	11	29	7.25	68	42.65%
Mauro Rosales	CHV	M	6	6	540	0	3	9	15	27	4.50	64	42.19%
Lloyd Sam	NY	M	6	6	531	0	3	11	16	30	5.08	74	40.54%
Landon Donovan	LA	M-F	4	4	360	0	2	12	12	26	6.50	68	38.24%
Giles Barnes	HOU	M	5	5	437	0	1	21	5	27	5.56	71	38.03%
Diego Valeri	POR	M	6	6	518	1	0	18	14	32	5.56	85	37.65%
Erick Torres	CHV	F	6	6	524	5	0	18	6	24	4.12	64	37.50%
Thierry Henry	NY	F	4	4	360	1	0	19	8	27	6.75	74	36.49%
Shea Salinas	SJ	M	0		360	0	3	2	18	23	5.75	69	33.33%
Alvaro Saborio	RSL	F	6	6	540	3	0	18	4	22	3.67	66	33.33%
Felipe Martins	MTL	M	6	6	536	1	2	18	12	32	5.37	97	32.99%
Justin Mapp	MTL	M	6	6	540	0	3	11	18	32	5.33	97	32.99%
Gilberto	TOR	F	4	4	333	0	0	12	8	20	5.41	62	32.26%
Michael Bradley	TOR	M			343	1	0	5	15	20	5.25	62	32.26%
Deshorn Brown	COL	F	5	4	366	1	0	16	4	20	4.92	62	32.26%
Teal Bunbury	NE	F	6	6	540	0	1	14	9	24	4.00	75	32.00%
Clint Dempsey	SEA	M	4	3	303	6	1	20	5	26	7.72	84	30.95%
Obafemi Martins	SEA	F	6	6	531	1	4	10	12	26	4.41	84	30.95%
Quincy Amarikwa	CHI	F	6	5	475	3	1	14	11	26	4.93	84	30.95%
Eddie Johnson	DC	F	5	5	441	0	0	11	6	17	3.47	55	30.91%
Graham Zusi	KC	F-M	4	4	360	1	2	8	14	24	6.00	78	30.77%
Diego Fagundez	NE	M-F	6	6	539	0	0	19	4	23	3.84	75	30.67%
Darren Mattocks	VAN	F	6	6	490	1	2	11	7	20	3.67	67	29.85%
Chris Wondolowski	SJ	F-M	4	4	360	3	0	17	3	20	5.00	69	28.99%
Joao Plata	RSL	F	3	3	207	2	2	9	8	19	8.26	66	28.79%
Leo Fernandes	PHI	F	5	3	326	2	1	12	8	21	5.80	74	28.38%
Dom Dwyer	KC	F	5	4	340	2	0	19	3	22	5.82	78	28.21%
Brad Davis	HOU	M			311	0	2	3	15	20	5.79	71	28.17%
Marco Di Vaio	MTL	F	3	3	270	1	1	22	4	27	9.00	97	27.84%
Fabian Castillo	DAL	F	6	6	539	2	0	15	2	17	2.84	62	27.42%
Will Johnson	POR	M	6	6	539	1	0	18	5	23	3.84	85	27.06%
Maurice Edu	PHI	M	6	6	540	2	1	11	8	20	3.33	74	27.03%
Hector Jimenez	CLB	M	5	5	433	0	2	6	10	18	3.74	71	25.35%
Lamar Neagle	SEA	F	6	5	416	1	2	13	6	21	4.54	84	25.00%
Mike Magee	CHI	F	4	4	360	1	2	13	6	21	5.25	84	25.00%
Will Bruin	HOU	F	5	5	449	3	1	11	5	17	3.41	71	23.94%
Bernardo Anor	CLB	M	5	5	416	2	0	13	4	17	3.68	71	23.94%
Kenny Miller	VAN	F	6	5	447	3	1	9	6	16	3.22	67	23.88%
Cristian Maidana	PHI	M	5	4	293	0	2	8	7	17	5.22	74	22.97%
Vincent Nogueira	PHI	M	6	6	540	1	1	10	6	17	2.83	74	22.97%
Michel	DAL	M-D	6	3	312	3	1	9	4	14	4.04	62	22.58%
Vicente Sanchez	COL	F	3	2	193	4	0	6	8	14	6.53	62	22.58%
Darlington Nagbe	POR	F-M	6	6	490	0	1	5	13	19	3.49	85	22.35%
Juninho	LA	M	4	4	358	0	2	7	6	15	3.77	68	22.06%
Benny Feilhaber	KC	M	5	5	449	1	1	7	9	17	3.41	78	21.79%
Kyle Beckerman	RSL	M	6	6	540	2	2	7	5	14	2.33	66	21.21%

This list below is sorted by total ShC-90, shot creation per 90 minutes. The one stipulation I would make is to be careful when looking at some of the numbers below. Guys like Justin Meram end up at the top of the list after playing just 58 minutes and scoring a goal in that short time. This leads to incorrect perceptions of certain players, as well as providing horrible and trite narratives like "Justin Meram is the most underrated player ever." That might be true, but probably not. Just look out for small sample sizes.

Player	Club	POS	GP	GS	MINS	G	A	SHTS	KP	SH-C	ShC-90	Total Team Shots	%Tsh
Justin Meram	CLB	M	5	0	58	1	1	5	2	8	12.41	71	11.27%
Yannick Djalo	SJ	M	2	0	56	0	0	6	1	7	11.25	69	10.14%
Marco Di Vaio	MTL	F	3	3	270	1	1	22	4	27	9.00	97	27.84%
Joao Plata	RSL	F	3	3	207	2	2	9	8	19	8.26	66	28.79%
Clint Dempsey	SEA	M	4	3	303	6	1	20	5	26	7.72	84	30.95%
Federico Higuain	CLB	F	5	5	448	4	2	18	17	37	7.43	71	52.11%
Robbie Keane	LA	F	4	4	360	3	1	17	11	29	7.25	68	42.65%
Kekuta Manneh	VAN	F	6	1	167	1	0	11	2	13	7.01	67	19.40%
Thierry Henry	NY	F	4	4	360	1	0	19	8	27	6.75	74	36.49%
Pedro Morales	VAN	M	6	4	407	1	2	14	14	30	6.63	67	44.78%
Vicente Sanchez	COL	F	3	2	193	4	0	6	8	14	6.53	62	22.58%
Landon Donovan	LA	M-F	4	4	360	0	2	12	12	26	6.50	68	38.24%
Graham Zusi	KC	F-M	4	4	360	1	2	8	14	24	6.00	78	30.77%
Dillon Serna	COL	M	2	1	106	0	1	5	1	7	5.94	62	11.29%
Dom Dwyer	KC	F	5	4	340	2	0	19	3	22	5.82	78	28.21%
Leo Fernandes	PHI	F	5	3	326	2	1	12	8	21	5.80	74	28.38%
Brad Davis	HOU	M			311	0	2	3	15	20	5.79	71	28.17%
Shea Salinas	SJ	M	0		360	0	3	2	18	23	5.75	69	33.33%
Giles Barnes	HOU	M	5	5	437	0	1	21	5	27	5.56	71	38.03%
Diego Valeri	POR	M	6	6	518	1	0	18	14	32	5.56	85	37.65%
Gilberto	TOR	F	4	4	333	0	0	12	8	20	5.41	62	32.26%
Felipe Martins	MTL	M	6	6	536	1	2	18	12	32	5.37	97	32.99%
Justin Mapp	MTL	M	6	6	540	0	3	11	18	32	5.33	97	32.99%
Mike Magee	CHI	F	4	4	360	1	2	13	6	21	5.25	84	25.00%
Michael Bradley	TOR	M			343	1	0	5	15	20	5.25	62	32.26%
Cristian Maidana	PHI	M	5	4	293	0	2	8	7	17	5.22	74	22.97%
Lloyd Sam	NY	M	6	6	531	0	3	11	16	30	5.08	74	40.54%
Chris Wondolowski	SJ	F-M	4	4	360	3	0	17	3	20	5.00	69	28.99%
Quincy Amarikwa	CHI	F	6	5	475	3	1	14	11	26	4.93	84	30.95%
Deshorn Brown	COL	F	5	4	366	1	0	16	4	20	4.92	62	32.26%
Fabian Espindola	DC	F	5	5	441	1	2	9	13	24	4.90	55	43.64%
Jermain Defoe	TOR	F	3	3	242	3	0	11	2	13	4.83	62	20.97%
Mauro Diaz	DAL	M	6	6	515	2	3	10	14	27	4.72	62	43.55%
Lamar Neagle	SEA	F	6	5	416	1	2	13	6	21	4.54	84	25.00%
Kelyn Rowe	NE	M	2	2	179	0	0	6	3	9	4.53	75	12.00%
Mauro Rosales	CHV	M	6	6	540	0	3	9	15	27	4.50	64	42.19%
Obafemi Martins	SEA	F	6	6	531	1	4	10	12	26	4.41	84	30.95%
Steven Lenhart	SJ	F	3	3	258	0	0	9	3	12	4.19	69	17.39%
Erick Torres	CHV	F	6	6	524	5	0	18	6	24	4.12	64	37.50%
Saer Sene	NE	M	6	4	286	0	0	8	5	13	4.09	75	17.33%
Michel	DAL	M-D	6	3	312	3	1	9	4	14	4.04	62	22.58%
Teal Bunbury	NE	F	6	6	540	0	1	14	9	24	4.00	75	32.00%
Juan Luis Anangono	CHI	F	6	1	113	1	0	5	0	5	3.98	84	5.95%
Sal Zizzo	KC	F	5	4	367	0	2	9	5	16	3.92	78	20.51%
Dwayne De Rosario	TOR	M	5	3	254	0	0	10	1	11	3.90	62	17.74%
Bradley Wright-Phillips	NY	F	5	2	278	1	0	9	3	12	3.88	74	16.22%
Diego Fagundez	NE	M-F	6	6	539	0	0	19	4	23	3.84	75	30.67%
Will Johnson	POR	M	6	6	539	1	0	18	5	23	3.84	85	27.06%
David Texeira	DAL	F	5	2	211	1	0	6	3	9	3.84	62	14.52%
Marco Pappa	SEA	M	4	2	165	0	0	6	1	7	3.82	84	8.33%

Overall, we're still just getting used to this statistic, but it seems like it could help dig a little deeper into valuing those players that don't always directly put the goal in the back of the net, but still play a key role in their teams' abilities to do so.