February 25, 2020

2020 Season Preview: Philadelphia Union

February 25, 2020/ Jared Young

Fans who like their soccer with a dash of philosophy will want to follow the Philadelphia Union this season. It was Aristotle who said, “the whole is greater than the sum of it’s parts,” and it will be the Union that put that wisdom to the test. The Union are coming off their best season by all measures including goal difference, expected goal difference, points and recording their first playoff win. Sporting Director Ernst Tanner responded by letting three productive players go because they didn’t fit the style of play. His replacements have less compelling CVs but arguably fit better into the target shape. If the Union are going to take another step forward it will be because Tanner has channeled his inner Aristotle. Otherwise, the Union might slide back into the decade long mediocrity they suffered previously.

December 13, 2019

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Union

December 13, 2019/ Jared Young

The Philadelphia Union are still enjoying their tenth and best season. They won their first playoff game against the I-95 rival New York Red Bulls. They won their most ever road games and finished third in a competitive eastern conference. Jim Curtin was given the freedom by SD Ernst Tanner to change formations, and he implemented enough tactical diversity to maintain an edge. It was the culture building season the franchise had been working toward, but their ability to continue this momentum will come down to the key new faces that Tanner is working diligently to add.

First, let’s document some visual proof of the relative Union’s success. The below chart reveals the five game moving average of the Union’s points per game over their history. Even a five game average is rough on the eyes, so I added one of the all-time great smoothing techniques to help. Velleman’s Smoother, developed by Paul Velleman, is the Johnny Walker Blue of smoothers. Let your eyes drink it up.

February 13, 2019

Toronto FC 2019 Season Preview

February 13, 2019/ Jared Young

Canadian Pastoral

Perhaps the best novel by the late great author Philip Roth was American Pastoral. Roth introduced us to a character nicknamed “The Swede” who followed a legendary athletic career as a youth with equal success as an adult, and lived a life that anyone would admire. From this contented perch the reader then watches as idealism and bad luck bring his idyllic life to ruins. It’s an unforgettable story of how the American dream can swallow itself and quickly turn tragedy.

As I prepared to write this preview of Toronto FCs 2019 season this story kept resurfacing in my mind. Both are a riches to rags stories with no clear answers, and ones that grapples with the trade off of maintaining the status quo versus continuing to push. Not a year ago Toronto FC was on top of the soccer world in North America. They had just completed the greatest season in MLS history (yes, it still is) and were taking down Liga MX giants on their way to another height in winning the CONCACAF Champions League. They were achieving things like no MLS team before them. And then something happened….

October 25, 2018

Postseason Preview: Philadelphia Union

October 25, 2018/ Jared Young

Is this the year that the Philadelphia Union break through? That is the big question on the minds of the Union faithful. In their nine seasons the team has reached the MLS Cup playoffs three times and matched that with three US Open Cup Final appearances, but they’ve collected a record of 0 wins and 6 losses in those pivotal moments. Generally speaking they’ve been outclassed in these games as well, allowing 13 goals and scoring just 4. Are these results just the growing pains of a new franchise or is something else going on?

July 30, 2018

MLS Television Blackouts: When Emotion and Data Collide

July 30, 2018/ Jared Young

Major League Soccer placed a calculated bet a few years back. They wagered they had core fans for life while they went searching for more marginal fans. The first part of this bet became public when MLS announced that ESPN had exercised their right to stream out-of-market games, and they would fold their digital streaming service MLS LIVE. All out-of-market content would move to a new ESPN+ app. It was sold as a great deal for existing fans. MLS Live was running at $70+ per season and the ESPN+ app was under $60 per year, and there was more content available. Sounds like a win, right?

But MLS LIVE wasn’t just an out-of-market service, because thirteen teams in 2017 did not exercise a blackout policy for their local games. Blackouts happen when a game is not televised for a specific group of people. They are very frustrating for fans who have paid for a service yet aren’t able to watch the game on a channel they thought they had paid for. The benefit of MLS LIVE was that fans of those thirteen teams that had severed ties with cable (aka "cut the cord") could watch their local team with the app. As a cord cutting Philadelphia Union fan, one of the teams that did not enforce blackouts, I was very happy with MLS LIVE.

February 27, 2018

NYCFC 2018 Season Preview

February 27, 2018/ Jared Young

New York City FC had their best season ever in 2017. They finished second in the league with 57 points and sported a +13 goal differential. But NYCFC plateaued and was bounced from the playoffs by Columbus, which prompted a good deal of change this offseason. NYCFC declined options on eleven players, and also moved upcoming star Jack Harrison to Manchester City, much to Pep Guardiola’s surprise, er, I mean, excitement. But it’s safe to say that NYCFC upgraded their overall talent with some smart and exciting signings. The big question that remains; did Claudio Reyna and Patrick Vieira do enough?

February 19, 2018

Philadelphia Union 2018 Season Preview

February 19, 2018/ Jared Young

At 40-1 to win the MLS Cup the Philadelphia Union aren't extreme underdogs, but they aren't the darlings of prediction season either. The Union made just one significant signing this offseason as they gave cap space to the Chicago Fire in exchange for David Accam, who replaces the departed Chris Pontius. The Union lost two other reasonably important contributors in Oguchi Onyewu and Roland Alberg, and that pretty much sums up the offseason for the Union, and the reason why there is no buzz about the team.

But the unthinkable does happen in the world of soccer.

Two years back Leicester City caught the soccer world by storm by winning the Premier League after oddsmakers put their title hopes at 5,000-1. They did it with exceptional defense and a rigorous commitment to the counterattack. With the acquisition of Accam, the Union could potentially set up in a similar fashion and might just be the unthinkable surprise of the season. Here’s how.

March 02, 2017

Atlanta United FC 2017 Season Preview

March 02, 2017/ Jared Young

Writing a data based season preview for an expansion team is an interesting proposition. The only data available are individual player statistics with other teams, but projecting how those players will work together in the new whole is nearly impossible. What data we do have for Atlanta United is that owner Arthur Blank, currently the most depressed sports mogul in the universe, has spent significant money to bring excitement to the city of Atlanta. Exactly how much remains to be seen but given the names on this list it’s safe to say that Atlanta United will be among the spending elite in MLS.

They started by signing a big name coach in Gerard “Tata” Martino, most recently the coach who oversaw Argentina’s drubbing of the United States in the Copa America Centenario. The roster is impressive as well. They signed Kenwyne Jones, the Trinidad and Tobago striker who scored more than 70 goals in England. There’s the young Venezuelen DP striker Josef Martinez, and USMNT left back Greg Garza, on loan from Liga MX. On the wing will be Hector Villalba, another DP from Argentina’s San Lorenzo. Blank also shelled out to have USMNT keeper Brad Guzan arrive in the summer. Oh, and I almost forget their prized signing, worth a reported $8.5 million transfer fee, the Arsenal target Miguel Almiron, a 23 year old attacking midfielder. This list keeps going with MLS veterans Michael Parkhurst and Jeff Larentowicz, and more. Arthur Blank might be feeling better real soon.

March 04, 2016

2016 ASA PREVIEW: COLUMBUS CREW

March 04, 2016/ Jared Young

The Crew played for the MLS Cup on their home soil last year only to fall short to the Portland Timbers, and while deep playoff runs always go hand in hand with a bit of good fortune, Columbus fans have every reason to believe their team will challenge again for this year’s title. Every player who started in the MLS Cup Final returned to the team and they added players, primarily on defense, where they needed help. Despite the stability the Crew will need great performances in three key areas to maintain their status as Kings of the East.

The Kamara Crew

The Columbus Crew’s biggest signing this offseason was locking down the return of the King of Scorers Kei Kamara to a long term deal. Kamara’s 22 goals last season was tied for the league lead and his physical presence up top sets the tone for the rest of the team. His long public and ultimately successful negotiation this offseason was proof that top players do have leverage and ability to loosen the very tight purse strings of the MLS single-entity system. The Crew will need another top flight performance from Kamara to keep their edge.

The biggest offensive signing of the offseason was fellow Sierra Leonean and Norwegian National Ola Kamara. Owner of 28 goals in his last three seasons in Norway and Austria, Kamara adds depth both up top and on the wings.

The Kings of the Cross after the jump.

November 18, 2015

USMNT World Cup Qualifying Review: Klinsmann Stays Afloat

November 18, 2015/ Jared Young

World Cup qualifying review: USMNT rebounds in opening weekend
The USMNT opened World Cup qualification for Russia with two solid, if unspectacular performances. They started with their easiest match of this round with a 6-1 home win over St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The second match was the most challenging, a road game against Trinidad and Tobago, and resulted in a 0-0 draw. The goalless result in a non-friendly was the first for the United States since their World Cup game against Germany last summer, a run of nine games. It was their seventh clean sheet overall in that same time.

American Soccer Analysis