MLS 2022 Playoff Projections

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MLS 2022 Playoff Projections

The MLS playoff season is fast approaching, and with 2-3 games left to go (depending on the team), we are now into the part of the season where the question of who is going make the playoffs is a desperate one for teams on the bubble. In the interest of fueling the existential dread of these fanbases, and, in keeping with the ASA tradition of releasing our playoff model projections whenever we get to them, we remembered that we should probably release those. So, without further ado, as I know half the readers will be gamblers wanting the good stuff up front, here are those projections.

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Using Goals Added (g+) to Assess Dollar Value

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Using Goals Added (g+) to Assess Dollar Value

One of the most interesting aspects of MLS when compared to many other popular soccer leagues in the world is that MLS operates under a salary cap. From a roster-building perspective, this has a tremendous impact on how players are valued. Considering the following thought experiment. Let’s say that we have two players who play the same position, have the same age and injury history, and have the exact skill level. For all intents and purposes, they are the same player. Now, let’s say that Player A has a much better agent than Player B and manages to get a contract with a team for 4 times the amount of money as player B.

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The Legend of Josef Martinez and what it takes to get to 27 (and more) goals

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The Legend of Josef Martinez and what it takes to get to 27 (and more) goals

Josef Martinez is a man on fire, and, as of writing this, he currently sits on 28 goals in 2018, having just broken the all time scoring record of 27 first set by Roy Lassiter in MLS’ inaugural season and matched by Chris Wondolowski in 2012 and Bradley Wright Phillips in 2014.

But I want to take this opportunity to look at how goal scorers score goals, and compare Wondolowski, Bradley Wright-Phillips and Martinez (we don’t have data on Lassiter, sadly) on their march to 27. Yes, Martinez has broken the record, but this article is going to deal with his stats on the way to 27. For a more complete breakdown of his data and where he lands, I’m sure someone at ASA (let’s say, Harrison) will write you that article at the end of the year.

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Finishing in MLS Part 2: Is Finishing Real? Heading Towards a Conclusion

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The topic of “finishing” is always a fun one in the analytics world, and, last April, it’s one I studied using data going all the way back to the beginning of the league to see if I could find evidence for a statistically significant gradient of repeatable finishing skill in MLS. Click the link to read the piece in full, but the short of it was, while there were many instances where a forward outperformed their xG by a wide margin or converted an unusual number of their shots on goal, these seasons were rarely repeated within a player’s career as you would expect if such numbers were tied to a skill.

After such a long and arduous study, you can imagine my consternation any time I read a piece praising or criticizing a player’s finishing skill within the league. In fact, when Jordan Morris told the New York Times, “my finishing is still raw,” I nearly had an aneurysm. Doesn't anyone read long winded statistical articles anymore? (Answer: no) But read more after the jump.

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Does Finishing Skill matter in MLS?

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If you’ve ever played FIFA, you’ve probably noted the importance of a forward’s “finishing” rating to how often they finish their chances. That’s how it works in the video game, but is “finishing” a real life skill significant enough to make an impact in a forward’s goal scoring tally?

While I have yet to meet a data analyst who thinks that “finishing skill” is as relevant to goal scoring as most soccer fans tend to believe, there doesn’t seem to be a consensus in terms of whether “finishing” is a repeatable skill. In other words, can forwards depend on a superior ability to convert chances year to year?

With forwards like Gyasi Zardes (16 goals in 2014) and Cyle Larin (17 goals in 2015) bursting onto the scene by converting a high percentage of their chances on goal, the question within MLS is as important as ever. Are these players scoring so many goals because of some underlying finishing skill, or are their unusually finishing rates something closer to statistical noise?

Is finishing a skill of any importance within MLS?

One important tool we can use for answering such a question is to study discrepancies in expected goals (xG) data. Since the expected goals model is built around league averages of conversion, if finishing were a skill of any statistical note we would see a consistent out-performance of the model by certain shooters who are highly skilled finishers. But before we get into repeatability for individuals, I’d like to use goals minus expected goals (G-xG) data to look at the question in much broader strokes.

More after the jump.

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2016 ASA PREVIEW: LOS ANGELES GALAXY

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The LA Galaxy had an interesting off-season. It started with the release of Omar Gonzalez and Juninho, followed by the pursuit of Ashley "barely still plays soccer" Cole. The Galaxy took a lot of heat for this pursuit when it was reported they would be using TAM, but anger seems to have dissipated when it was announced that price was closer to 300k. In reality, people should still be getting angry that the Galaxy spent 300k on a 35 year old left back of questionable fitness, but the Galaxy narrative machine is simply too strong for such a reasoned fan reaction. 

The Galaxy further wasted their money on the head scratching signing of Jeff Larentowicz, who demands far more money than he is worth, free agent money on Mike Magee, despite having one of the most promising young talents in the country in Jose Villarreal providing cover at left mid and forward, and finally, paying high dollar for one of the most overrated keepers in MLS history. 

In their frenzy to blow their newly acquired cap space in the most inefficient way possible, the Galaxy actually managed to stumble their way into three key moves. The first was the signing of Emannuel Boateng, a promising young winger who has impressed in preseason. His speed and dribbling ability should offer a new facet to the Galaxy attack, although Sebastian Lletget is still projected as the starting left mid once he recovers from his groin injury.

The second was the use of TAM to acquire Jelle Van Damme from Standard Liege in Belgium. Van Damme is a physical defender who looks to be a real aerial presence and danger on set-pieces, and, for Galaxy fans, it’s best to keep the mind on his talents and not that time he called Oguchi Onyeywu a dirty monkey, which the Galaxy TOTALLY addressed by getting quotes from lots of people not named Jelle Van Damme about how that’s completely in the past.  (Fans somehow bought it because, again, the Galaxy narrative machine is all powerful).

More after the jump

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2016 ASA PREVIEW: NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION

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New England continues to thrive with a balanced attacking core which balances veterans with young talent.

Last year the Revs had an expected goal differential (xGD) of 0.11 but a GD of 0.03, which is why they finished lower in the table than many predicted. This was mainly to do with a shaky defense which unperformed their xGA by 0.16 goals a game.

This has a great deal to do with their attacking set-up with less emphasis on midfielders tracking back. New England's attacking posture continues to be most the most aggressive in the league, seeing more possession in the final third than any other team over the last two years. While such a style is fun to watch, it puts enormous amounts of pressure on their center midfielders to absorb pressure, which is partially why Jermaine Jones instantly transformed that team in 2014, providing both defensive cover, and a passing backstop which brought players back into the midfield more often to receive the ball. His importance to the team in 2015 was significantly less, however, and the addition of Gershon Koffie should help to bring back some of the magic of 2014.

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2016 ASA PREVIEW: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES

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With a cross to through ball ratio of 17-1 in a league where few teams break 5-1, San Jose in 2015 continued their storied tradition of raising their middle finger to modern soccer and losing on their own boring and regressive terms. Tackle, tackle, cross, cross, etc. The reason for this style runs to the core of San Jose's identity as a blue collar club that doesn't seem to put value on creativity or play making. One the most fan maligned players on that club, for instance, is Matias Perez Garcia. Boo! Hiss! Look how terrible this dude is after the jump.

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The 2011 Galaxy: Lucky, Good, or Both?

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The 2011 LA Galaxy often gets credit for being the greatest Galaxy team of all time, and it’s certainly understandable why. They won the cup. They won the shield, and their ability to put games on defensive lockdown was legendary. 

23. That’s how many games the LA Galaxy were involved in in 2011 where the final point outcome was decided by a single goal. This means single goal wins, single goal losses and ties. That’s 68% of the entire season. Of those 23 games, the LA Galaxy won 12, tied 10 and lost only 1, acquiring 46 of the possible 69 points up for grabs. They couldn’t have been more clutch, which is why many (wrong) people consider them greater than the 2014 LA Galaxy team which was statistically superior in virtually every facet. The 2011 LA Galaxy simply took care of business.  

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Shot Limiting: Bringing the heat (maps)

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Earlier this year, I decided the world needed a 30 page paper on shot limiting in MLS. Of course, the powers that be found this to be a tad self indulgent, and more accurately, sad that I had the time to do such a thing. They ended up talking me down to a slightly more readable 20 pages, which can be read here.

But my art will not be compromised, gosh darnit! There is still so much to be learned about this topic, and, more to the point, my obsession hadn’t been quenched. Several questions were raised within the paper that I simply didn’t have the necessary data to explore.

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