Replication Project: Are shots from free kicks useless or good?

Replication Project: Are shots from free kicks useless or good?

Way back in 2011 a somewhat remarkable thing occurred in the nascent soccer analytics blogosphere. On May 20, Chris Anderson posted the provocatively titled “The Uselessness of Free Kicks in the Premier League,” which argued that since free kicks are rare and not often converted they are “not particularly effective devices for scoring in the Premier League”. A few weeks later, Anderson lent space on his own blog, Soccer by the Numbers, to Ian Graham, now the outgoing Director of Research at Liverpool but then at Decision Technology, to argue the opposite. “Why Shots From Free Kicks Are A Good Idea, Or At Least Not A Bad One” showed that while free kick shots rarely result in a goal, the correct comparison is to other shots outside of the box. In that comparison, free kick shots are about twice as valuable as open play shots from outside the box. So with an additional decade of data, have things changed since then using MLS data and who was right?

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Europe, Money, and the Problem with Disparity

American Soccer Analysis has been in the analytics game since 2013, and, early on in this project, we noticed something that’s always troubled us when it comes to taking the seminal analytics studies and concepts developed in Europe and applying it to an MLS data-set. To put it frankly, they don’t work as well.

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The Replication Project: Is xG The Best Predictor of Future Results?

This is the first article of what we are terming The Replication Project where we take an important soccer analytics finding from yesteryear and see if it still holds up with modern data. While this can be just a straightforward replication, it can also lead down some rabbit holes as you will find in this first installment where we look at whether the claim that xG is the best predictor of future performance still holds up.

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