Goals Added: How a Computer Watches Nicolas Lodeiro Play Soccer

Goals Added: How a Computer Watches Nicolas Lodeiro Play Soccer

There’s an old xkcd where a guy standing on top of a giant trash heap of math symbols explains how machine learning works: you dump your data into this junk pile here, see, and answers fall out the other end. And if the answers are wrong? “Just stir the pile until they start looking right,” he shrugs.

Models like goals added (g+) are great at answering wildly complex questions like “How much did this left back’s whiffed tackle at the halfway line change his team’s mathematical probability of scoring next time it gets the ball?” but terrible at telling you how they did it. In that sense the model is sort of like the athletes it’s trained on, guys who get a face full of microphones after every game but, as David Foster Wallace once wrote, “usually turn out to be stunningly inarticulate about just these qualities and experiences that constitute their fascination.” What were you thinking when you derived that bizarre possession value? Well, Sebi, it’s not the result we wanted but we’re just trying to take it one calculation at a time. Thanks to the fans for believing in us.

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Coaches Reward Goalscorers. But Should They?

Coaches Reward Goalscorers. But Should They?

On March 30, 2019, the 16-year-old midfielder Gianluca Busio came on for Sporting Kansas City in a rout of Montreal. He didn’t do a whole lot in his half hour on the pitch—seven of his eight completed passes went backwards—but in the 78th minute he poked the ball away from a center back and slotted home his team’s sixth goal. The next week Busio was rewarded with a full 90 minutes and he scored again. The week after that, another appearance, a third straight goal. Coach Peter Vermes was sticking with the red-hot kid and it was paying off.

Alas, not all breakthroughs go as smoothly as Busio’s. On July 17, a teenage striker named Theo Bair earned his second career start for Vancouver. He made a couple of promising runs where he held off a New England defender and found a shot from a low cross, but neither chance connected. The first hit the far post and ricocheted out. Two minutes later, Bair reached back for a bouncing pass at the top of the six-yard box but couldn’t quite corral it. The shot sailed over the crossbar from embarrassingly close range and Bair tumbled head over heels into the goal, where he slapped the grass in frustration. He was subbed off, and next game he only appeared for the last 14 minutes.

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2020 Season Preview: NYCFC

2020 Season Preview: NYCFC

Look, if we do this whole preview in serious pundit voice there’s going to be nothing to say about New York City Football Club. They're the exact same team as last season! Which was pretty much the same team as the season before that! They’ve been good for years, and if you’re crazy enough to bet on MLS you’d have to be even crazier not to bet on them being good again this year. Like some jerk wrote, boringly, on this website a couple of months ago, there’s no reason NYCFC shouldn’t be a playoff team in 2020.

But screw that, right? There’s a reason nobody likes Nate Silver. You know who everyone likes, deep down, whether they want to work through this uncomfortable personal truth with their therapist or not, is very loud men who go on TV to yell their loud sports takes loudly. And if those men gave even one tiny airborne molecule of a crap about American club soccer, boy would they have some news for you: NYCFC is not going to make the playoffs this season. Not even close! In fact, you’re an idiot for ever thinking they might.

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