Priors and Penalties: Finding the best penalty takers with Bayes

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Priors and Penalties: Finding the best penalty takers with Bayes

It’s MLS playoff time, and that means the possibility of penalties and shootouts. Rodrigo Schlegel led Orlando to victory after Pedro Gallese was sent off. Zack Steffen earned a move to Manchester City, in large part, due to leading Columbus to two penalty shootout victories. Portland named a bar in Providence Park after the famous double post shot in the marathon 2015 shootout against Sporting KC. Seattle won their first MLS Cup without registering a shot on goal by winning a shootout. Landon Donovan blasted his penalty over the bar to hand RSL the 2009 MLS Cup. Penalties and shootouts are remembered in ways that few other plays are.

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2020 Season Preview: NYCFC

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2020 Season Preview: NYCFC

Look, if we do this whole preview in serious pundit voice there’s going to be nothing to say about New York City Football Club. They're the exact same team as last season! Which was pretty much the same team as the season before that! They’ve been good for years, and if you’re crazy enough to bet on MLS you’d have to be even crazier not to bet on them being good again this year. Like some jerk wrote, boringly, on this website a couple of months ago, there’s no reason NYCFC shouldn’t be a playoff team in 2020.

But screw that, right? There’s a reason nobody likes Nate Silver. You know who everyone likes, deep down, whether they want to work through this uncomfortable personal truth with their therapist or not, is very loud men who go on TV to yell their loud sports takes loudly. And if those men gave even one tiny airborne molecule of a crap about American club soccer, boy would they have some news for you: NYCFC is not going to make the playoffs this season. Not even close! In fact, you’re an idiot for ever thinking they might.

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Offseason Outlook: NYCFC

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Offseason Outlook: NYCFC

You’ve got to hand it to NYCFC’s new sporting director David Lee: the guy’s set himself up for success here. For a lot of young sports execs, making the leap from XO to HMFIC means taking a move to some club mired deep in Trust the Process mode. Not so for Lee, who ran point on Claudio Reyna’s personnel decisions the last few years and now inherits what he calls “the strongest roster of players we’ve ever had.”

If only they had a coach. Barring some winter sales, NYCFC’s opening day eighteen looks just about set, which makes it all the more important to give whoever’s going to replace Dome Torrent time to size things up and make a few signings of his own. Whether or not those moves involve much money, they could help shape next season’s tactics and determine whether this team will have the depth to juggle CCL and MLS next spring.

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New York City FC 2019 Season Preview

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New York City FC 2019 Season Preview

Here's the weird thing about New York City Football Club in the Year of Our Lord 2019: after all the autumnal sturm und drang, the late-season slide, the second-round playoff bounce, and Domènec Torrent's desastre of a postseason presser, the club had a whole offseason to clean house and bring in Torrent's team and they just kind of ... didn't. What you'll see on opening day is more or less the same lineup you know and love (or used to love last summer but now hate with a burning passion because they lost some soccer games). Even my boy Ben Sweat's still out there, which can be a beautiful thing as long as a foul pole’s obstructing your view of the defensive third.

So, uh, what gives? Allow me to resubmit to you the possibility that Dome’s team was maybe actually not that bad at soccer last season. That in fact their +0.55 expected goal differential per game was the second best in MLS during Torrent’s tenure, a marked improvement from under Patrick Vieira. And that their best run of games came without David Villa or Yangel Herrera, this offseason’s two major departures. Maybe Claudio Reyna wasn’t crazy to think all this team needed was a few new pieces for things to fall into place.

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Little Things from Week 17: The Union Midfield, Gressel's Quiet Contribution, and Jeff Attinella's Decision Making

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Little Things from Week 17: The Union Midfield, Gressel's Quiet Contribution, and Jeff Attinella's Decision Making

Philly’s Midfield

The Philadelphia Union are making a concerted effort to keep the ball this season. They are fifth in MLS in passes per game and have built their attack around getting the ball into the half-spaces and putting the wingers (especially Ilsinho) in positions to run at defenders.

Their 4-0 home win against Vancouver was a manifestation of their newfound approach. They were on the front foot for most of the game against the bunkering Whitecaps, so even with midfield distributor Haris Medunjanin suspended, they demonstrated how good they can be with the ball.

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