Analyzing Foreign Transfers to MLS with Survival Analysis

Finding success in the global transfer market is a critical part of a winning MLS season. While the U.S. is obviously progressing as a soccer nation, there just aren’t enough talented players from this country to satisfy its growing thirst for exciting play and trophies. Still, signing players that are unfamiliar with MLS has also been a risky prospect. Foreign signings with poor outcomes can waste valuable international roster spots, and destroy a team’s budget in a relatively low-spending league. However, Atlanta United and LAFC have shown that signing players who can contribute immediately can make an expansion team an immediate contender. Understanding the historical structural patterns in the success and failure of past MLS teams could offer insights into navigating these decisions, for both future teams and those who need players for 2019 and beyond. Obviously, the most important considerations for signing a player have to do with style of play and personality, but understanding general hotspots and mistakes could improve the odds of signing foreign players who succeed in MLS.