Making the Most from Trading: Setting Your Team Up For Success in the MLS Transfer Market

Making the Most from Trading: Setting Your Team Up For Success in the MLS Transfer Market

In Major League Soccer circles, the words and phrases “GAM”, “TAM”, “Allocation Order”, and “Superdraft” are commonplace whereas those same words and phrases are completely meaningless to fans of non-US leagues. This dichotomy of understanding comes from the uniqueness in MLS player acquisition rules. In addition to signing a player through a traditional transfer, MLS offers its teams many unique ways to acquire players, including trades, a draft of college players, expansion and re-entry drafts, and free agency. These different ways to acquire players also presented another opportunity to teams: they are able to trade for players in currency other than money. Teams can trade International Slots, College Draft Picks, GAM, TAM, and more.

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How to find Transfer Market Success in MLS

How to find Transfer Market Success in MLS

Analyzing Foreign Transfers to MLS with Survival Analysis

Finding success in the global transfer market is a critical part of a winning MLS season. While the U.S. is obviously progressing as a soccer nation, there just aren’t enough talented players from this country to satisfy its growing thirst for exciting play and trophies. Still, signing players that are unfamiliar with MLS has also been a risky prospect. Foreign signings with poor outcomes can waste valuable international roster spots, and destroy a team’s budget in a relatively low-spending league. However, Atlanta United and LAFC have shown that signing players who can contribute immediately can make an expansion team an immediate contender. Understanding the historical structural patterns in the success and failure of past MLS teams could offer insights into navigating these decisions, for both future teams and those who need players for 2019 and beyond. Obviously, the most important considerations for signing a player have to do with style of play and personality, but understanding general hotspots and mistakes could improve the odds of signing foreign players who succeed in MLS.

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What Waiving Magnus Wolf Eikrem means for the Sounders' Season

What Waiving Magnus Wolf Eikrem means for the Sounders' Season

There is a lot that goes into the signing a player for a club. I couldn’t tell you all the things involved, but my understanding of the situation from others who are far more experienced on the subject is that it’s usually a rather extensive process. Obviously there are exceptions to the rule, but generally speaking, navigating an international market, dealing with agents, negotiating contracts, weighing the cost benefit analysis of assets, and doing all those things within Major League Soccer’s byzantine roster rules shouldn’t be looked at as a simple process.

The word out of the Sounders camp last night was that Magnus Wolff Eikrem is going to be waived by the organization tol open up an international spot. International spots are hard to come by in this league and are generally valued over $100,000 in various resources (however we’ve seen them scale up higher later in the season as these resources are generally in even more in demand).

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Chalk Talk: The Lee is Free

Chalk Talk: The Lee is Free

Early Wednesday morning, or late Tuesday evening (depending on your time zone I guess), the New England Revolution announced they had sent Lee Nguyen to LAFC for $950k of allocation money. Had the Revolution not been so stubborn about trading Nguyen in the first place, who requested a trade way back in November and then again in December, the Revs likely could've hauled in more for Nguyen’s services. That aside, the folks here at ASA are glad that Lee is free to do his beautiful soccer things.

LAFC picking Nguyen up is a bit of a head scratcher for some, given it’s not entirely clear where Lee will fit under Bob Bradley’s scheme, but here’s how I see him fitting in.

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Expectation Management: Carlos Rivas vs Mike Grella

Expectation Management: Carlos Rivas vs Mike Grella

Three years ago I became a proud member of the ‘Congregation of Grella’.

As a tremendously under-appreciated winger in his time with the New York Red Bulls, Mike Grella has done just about everything a person could have asked him to do on his modest wage ($188,250 in 2017). His humble beginning, tremendous back story and journeyman career only add to the legend of a very successful stint in Harrison, New Jersey.

As the theme has gone the last few seasons, the Red Bulls are doing what they can to limit their risk with aging veterans. They have been cutting ties with those at the tail-end (or beyond) of their prime playing ability. They have been flipping those assets by turning them into opportunities for club.

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Dom Dwyer to Orlando: what it means and what is next.

Dom Dwyer to Orlando: what it means and what is next.

After years of chasing Dom Dwyer, Orlando City got their guy. They sent a whole helluva lot of various pieces of allocation, financials and back-end laden incentives to Kansas City for the newly minted US international striker.

Aside from Dwyer being a good striker—and we’ll get to that in a second—he has a lot of various marketing appeal to him. He went to the University of South Florida, is newly capped by the US men's national team, and still garners good feelings in Orlando from 2013 when he scored 15 goals in only 13 total appearances for the Lions while on loan. 

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Life After Kamara: The Crew and Higuain

In case you missed the drama last week and are wondering why Kei Kamara was out on the pitch this weekend for New England, Columbus traded their sometimes enigmatic and always entertaining forward to the Revolution for a ransom of MLS financials, a couple draft picks, and an international roster spot. 

Regardless of why, Kamara is now gone from Columbus. The question now shifts to what becomes of the Crew and their immediate future. Kamara in his last post game appearance made a few awkward and pointed remarks. “I haven’t really had to depend on Pipa at all,” Kamara said. “How long have I been here? How many goals have I scored? How many have come from his assists? One, maybe two. I don’t depend on him. I depend on Ethan, I depend on my outside backs to pass me balls.”

This is partially true in terms of actual goal production, but it´s not the entire story. While Justin Meram, Ethan Finlay, Harrison Afful and Waylon Francis all accrued their share of assists last year, Kamara's chances have come primarily through a cross-happy approach. Utilizing the Sierra Leone native's elite skills at winning aerial duels in the attacking box, Kamara led MLS with the most aerial duels won (155) with an insane 56% success rate.

Pipa has been credited with only four assists (one being a secondary assist which we don't count in our records) on goals scored by Kamara. But he hasn't exactly been dormant during the Kei era either.

More on the Pipa to Kamara connection after the jump.

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Sizing up the Silva for Saborio swap

Last week, the Alvaro Saborio for Luis Silva trade kind of took the league by surprise. Nobody saw this coming, but after the dust settled this trade makes perfect sense for both parties involved. For DC, they give up a promising youngster for a proven goal scorer they badly need. For Real Salt Lake, they pick up an up and coming midfielder who can help rebuild an aging RSL side.

But for United, this is a move to win now and to take advantage of their favorable table positioning to make a serious run for the Supporter's Shield in a weaker Eastern Conference and a possible deep run for the MLS Cup too. It's a "win now or never" kind of mentality and it's one that will most likely pay off.

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Player Acquisition: The Tweeners

There is a thing that constantly steals my interest when it comes Major League Soccer. It's how teams choose to scout and evaluate talent that is already in the league. One thing that has been made quite clear with the financial constraints is that it is difficult to hold on to those players that hover around the $200,000 salary threshold, and yet aren't stars or obviously consistent difference makers. Player makers such as Chris Rolfe, Mauro Rosales and Bobby Convey have found new homes in MLS, either in the few months leading up to this season or since the first kick. The names themselves aren't specific references of importance, but rather examples of what happens in the off-season concerning players in the aforementioned pay range that are just casualties of cap situations in today's era.

These players we understand to a degree. They are interesting talents with a fair amount of room for critiquing, whether that be due to personality, problems with injuries or just inconsistent displays of performance from week to week. There are always one or two or even three (in this case) of these players that are available come the off-season.

Two of the three players went to clubs with the ability to take chances.

Chivas USA was obviously getting a steal in adding Rosales. Super Mauro, since being added to the roster, has accrued 17 key passes and 3 assists while producing 12 shots on his own. He leads the club in Total Shots Created.

DC United needed anything to help save their season and jump start their offense. The arrival of Rolfe in return for a bit of allocation money was seemingly a worthwhile risk--and his influence on Ben Olsen's chances of keeping the head coaching job can probably be debated to some extent. Prior to the trade, Olsen and DC United had only produced 1 point through 3 matches. Since the addition of Rolfe, they're now rolling at nearly 2 points per match.

Now, I'm not saying that Rolfe is truly responsible for the turn around. That idea would represent lazy analysis. In fact, DC United generated 34 shot attempts to its opponents' 36 in the first three games, and 108 to 112 since, so it's not like Rolfe's presence has indicated a stable improvement yet. Frankly, since MLS week 4, it's been the Fabian Espindola show at RFK, and that is a completely different discussion.

On to Convey, who didn't go to a team that had to take on a lot of risk. Instead he went to the defending Supporters' Shield-winning New York Red Bulls. He has been somewhat of middling attacking influence in his time on the pitch for the Bulls, adding 9 key passes and 2 shots in just under 700 minutes over his initial tenure this season.

WhoScored isn't exactly impressed. They have graded his performance so far by issuing him a 6.39 rating which is well below their league average rating for a player---which sits near 6.7. Squawka ranks him 16th on the  roster depth chart which mostly follows up that thinking being that WhoScored placed him 15th overall.

These three players represent teams that have taken advantage of a system available to them in an effort to improve their club. What is intriguing to me at this juncture isn't necessarily the impact they've made upon their current club but how their current clubs targeted them as being upgrades and financially worth their investments.

I'm sure that MLS teams have personnel that help front office types make decisions and help discern player talent and ability that make them right for the acquisition. I am familiar enough with certain clubs to be aware of the individuals that are involved in that process, and much of it seems archaic and awkward in method.

Mauro Rosales may have been less of a risk when it comes to Chivas. In fact it was kind of "duh" type moment that perfectly fell in their lap. The other side of the coin is that Rolfe and Convey were both risks, and heavy ones at that considering their price tags (before New York lapped Convey up, that is).

I would certainly concede that all are substantial talents within the US first division. But how they fit the rosters to which they were added to is a bit interesting.

Some could point to Convey's addition to New York as an attempt to add competition to the left side and some wide play making, Convey has instead shifted to the back line in the form of a full back. Which begs the question, was that the idea before he was added?

I, as well as many, had thought Luis Silva would be taking over the role of central play maker in Washington after the departure of Dwayne De Rosario. After the stumbles by Silva early on, I thought that Rolfe would take over that role, but instead he looks to be pushed out wide with Nick DeLeon, being featured more frequently in the central attacking role. Was this a decision made before acquiring him, and did the club think he could fill that role any better than some of the more natural wide midfielders who have moved clubs since?

Results-based analysis is often unhelpful, and in these cases, don't truly tell the story we're seeking in how MLS teams are valuing these types of players. I'm curious if there are any specific statistical values that teams could point to as to why they made this move--and please, I hope it's more than the assists or goals totals, or the fact that they're "winners." For all the talk about transparency in details for the league, it would be nice to see some of the true thought processes involved in analyzing these talents beyond tired cliches. Especially considering that all these clubs they have access to far better gauges and methods than what most of us have at our disposal.

How to Build a Roster: Chad Marshall vs. Bobby Boswell

A topic that I've been exploring this off-season for myself is how to go about building a successful roster in MLS given all the various mechanism that are involved and a salary cap to work around. It's not just how to build a successful roster, but how you would go about building one with sustainable success---a task that many clubs find an incredibly difficult given the methodology of the league. The question I ask aloud is whether or not it's a problem of being stubborn and trying to go about acquiring talent the way most in the world do, or using the system in place. This may or may not be a series that takes place over the course of the off-season. But last week there were a couple of transactions that occurred that struck my fancy in terms of how each front office went about it. Obviously there are factors that you have to consider, such as table placement, which in turn dictates allocation money and a various assortment of other little details. I think, overall, finding and acquiring defensive talent is a really tough task and I'm not entirely certain that you can go about trying to build for multiple years all in one off-season. Committing too much money to a single player can complicate roster moves for mid-season acquisitions, but can be easily cleared up in a single off-season with the help of the re-entry draft, various trades and the SuperDraft.

The re-entry draft is a basic way to spread some of the talent across the league when clubs aren't able to incorporate the players price tag under their cap. The draft---if you aren't familiar---functions in two different stages, with teams selecting players working in reverse order of the seasons table. Stage 1: players selected have to either have their options exercised, or teams are required to offer. Stage 2: a team can offer the player basically a "genuine offer" meaning that there is potential that you can get the player a discount rate. Should a player not sign with team, the club holds the player's league rights.

Over the last week we saw what a team with allocation money can do in the re-entry draft. D.C. United acquired a hand full of players to upgrade their roster situation. One specific player of note is Bobby Boswell, a former MLS Defender of the Year, selected in the second round of the first stage. This means that D.C. United will offer a contract to Boswell that equates to 105% of his salary from the previous season and likely will be in the range of $235,000.

Likewise the Seattle Sounders were also looking to upgrade their defensive options. They worked out a trade with the Columbus Crew to acquire another former MLS Defender of the Year, this time in the form of Chad Marshall. The Sounders surrendered allocation money and a 1st round draft pick to the 2015 SuperDraft. We can't be certain how much allocation money was exchanged between the two teams but my understanding is that it's somewhere around $75,000.

Both players despite being in their late 20's are solid individuals that will help their new clubs in a specific manner. Looking at the numbers, Seattle was one of the worst defensive teams that made the playoffs with a 0.95 shot attempt ratio that indicates they allow more shots against their goal than they produce for themselves.  D.C. United was just simply abysmal on all fronts, and that fact needs no objective proof. They just sucked. You know it, I know it, and everyone knows it.

Chad Marshall and Bobby Boswell both finished in the top-10 of defensive actions ranking 3rd and 7th overall. This doesn't necessarily imply any value, as I've yet to find any studies that can correlate blocked shots with goals saved, though I think it would be an interesting study. That said, any time you can spend money to potentially reduce the amount of shots your team faces is a good thing.

Either way Marshall and Boswell are very similar players in age, style and tactics. But they were acquired by different methods as the Sounders basically spent $125,000 in controlled assets to obtain his rights. DC spent and extra 5% on top of Boswells previous salary to pluck him from the Houston Dynamo and the re-entry draft.

Boswell will cost United roughly $235,000 in total numbers to put him on their squad. Assuming Marshall doesn't negotiate his contract any further down, he'll cost the Sounders $485,000 in both salary AND the assets they spent to acquire him. I think it's funny how many people criticized the United's front office in their move to select Boswell in the first stage, but the truth is they got a better value for the same piece as the Sounders giving up only half the assets.

It's easy to make fun of those that are already calling D.C. United "an early favorite" for the MLS Cup. It's impossible to know if any of these changes really help either Seattle or DC.  Admittedly it's hard to not see the Red and Black improve from where they were last year, and adding the handful of upgrades across their roster and full season of a healthy Chris Pontius should help---at the very least making their starting XI that much more handsome.